Matchday 5 of the 2024/25 UEFA Conference League group stage between Astana (Kazakhstan) and Chelsea (England) will be held on December 12 at the Central Stadium in Almaty. Astana vs. Chelsea: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Referee: Sven Jablonski (Germany)
Matches – 6 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 27;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.5;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 16;
Penalties – 0%.
Predicted lineups for Astana vs. Chelsea
Astana (5-2-3): Josip Condric – Yan Vorogovsky, Aleksa Amanovic, Branimir Kalaica, Kipras Kazukolovas, Karlo Bartolec – Nazmi Gripshi, Max Ebong – Usman Kamara, Chinedu Jeffrey, Marin Tomasov.
Chelsea (4-4-2): Filip Jorgensen – Axel Disasi, Benoit Badiashile, Tosin Adarabioyo, Renato Veiga – Cesare Casadei, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, Jadon Sancho, Mykhailo Mudryk – Marc Guehi, Christopher Nkunku.
Each team's starting lineup from their last match in this tournament is listed.
Astana
The team from Kazakhstan drew 1-1 at home against Vitoria Guimaraes in the last round. This result ended a two-match losing streak in the Conference League, where they lost away to New Saints (0-2) and Pafos (0-1). With four points, the club is ranked 23rd. It's also worth noting that Grigory Babayan's side has scored only two goals, which is one more than HJK, the team with the weakest attack in this phase of the European competition.
- No more than three goals have been scored in Astana's last six Conference League matches.
- At least one team failed to score in 5 of Astana's last 6 games in this tournament.
- The club has not conceded a goal in the first half in their last nine home matches in this European competition.
Chelsea
The Londoners have achieved a perfect record after four rounds. Only Legia has also collected 12 points. The English side comfortably won all their group stage matches in the Conference League: defeating Gent (4-2) and Noah (8-0) at home, as well as Panathinaikos (4-1) and Heidenheim (2-0) away. Arne Slot's men have far outpaced all rivals in terms of goals scored – 18 (Legia, their closest competitor in attack, has only 11 goals).
Midfielder Cesare Casadei will miss the match due to suspension.
- The English side's uncompromising streak in European competitions stands at 14 matches (10 wins and 4 losses).
- At least one team failed to score in 7 of Chelsea's last 10 European games.
- No more than three goals have been scored in 13 of Chelsea's last 16 matches in the Champions League and Conference League.
Astana vs. Chelsea: Match Prediction
The last time the Kazakhstan team faced an opponent of this caliber was in November 2019, when they hosted Manchester United in the Europa League group stage. On that occasion, Astana managed to defeat the Premier League side 2-1. Notably, Astana has not lost in five consecutive home matches in this tournament, securing 4 wins and 1 draw. Chelsea has played only three away matches in this tournament – two wins in the group stage and a loss to Servette (1-2) in the playoff round to the main stage of the Conference League.
I anticipate that the hosts will avoid a heavy defeat. Astana has not lost by three or more goals in their last 17 home European matches, and in the Conference League, they have only once lost by two goals at their home stadium. Meanwhile, the English side has not won by a large margin in 17 of their last 18 away European games. Additionally, I expect Chelsea to field a second-string lineup and play without enthusiasm, given the match will be held in sub-zero temperatures around -10 degrees Celsius.
My prediction – Astana with a handicap (+2)
