The second-leg Champions League 2025/26 play-off tie between Atalanta (Italy) and Borussia Dortmund (Germany) will take place on 25 February at the New Balance Arena in Bergamo. The score in the first leg was 2:0 in favour of Borussia Dortmund. Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Atalanta
Atalanta lost the first leg 0:2, which was the club’s third straight defeat in the Champions League. In addition, the home team failed to score in two consecutive matches in this tournament for the first time in their Champions League history. Meanwhile, Raffaele Palladino’s side have conceded in four games in a row. To reach the next round, the Italians need to win by at least a three-goal margin. Incidentally, in the Champions League 2025/26 group stage, the hosts beat another German side 3:0.
- At least one team failed to score in five of Atalanta’s previous seven Champions League matches.
- On home soil, the club have not won eight of their last 11 Champions League games (four draws, four defeats).
- In five of the previous seven home matches in this tournament, the hosts scored at least twice.
Potential Atalanta Lineup (3-4-3)
Marco Carnesecchi – Sead Kolasinac, Isak Hien, Berat Djimsiti – Nicola Zalewski, Ederson, Mario Pasalic, Davide Zappacosta – Marten de Roon, Gianluca Scamacca, Lorenzo Bernasconi.
Midfielder Charles De Ketelaere and forward Giacomo Raspadori are injured.
Borussia Dortmund
With their win in the first leg, Borussia Dortmund ended a three-match winless run in the Champions League (one draw, two defeats). In addition, Niko Kovac’s men kept a clean sheet for only the second time in this season’s tournament. To progress, the visitors can even lose the return leg by a one-goal margin. If Borussia Dortmund lose by exactly two goals, the tie will go to extra time. Notably, the team’s last two Champions League defeats both ended 0:2.
- At least three goals were scored in nine of Borussia Dortmund’s last 12 matches in this tournament.
- Away from home in the Champions League, the club have not won four of their previous five games (one draw, three defeats).
- In five consecutive away matches in the Champions League, the Germans have conceded at least twice.
Potential Borussia Dortmund Lineup (3-5-2)
Gregor Kobel – Ramy Bensebaini, Waldemar Anton, Nico Schlotterbeck – Jobe Bellingham, Felix Nmecha, Julian Brandt, Julian Ryerson, Daniel Svensson – Serhou Guirassy, Maximilian Beier.
Defenders Niklas Sule and Filippo Mane are injured.
Referee
Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez (Spain)
Matches – 9 (international fixtures, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 29;
Yellow cards per match (average) – 3.2;
Red cards shown – 1;
Fouls per match (average) – 26;
Penalties – 22%.
Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund: Match Prediction
Borussia Dortmund will travel to Italy with one objective – to protect the advantage they have built up. Niko Kovac’s side may not be known for reliable defending, but we are confident the Germans can produce one match at maximum concentration. All the more so given the expected return of their first-choice central defender, whose presence should clearly boost confidence. We think Borussia Dortmund will even break forward on the counter with one eye on their own goal. It is also important to add that the team played a league match as recently as Saturday, so they will have more time to recover and prepare than the Italians.
The Bergamo side face a difficult task. The hosts need to score at least twice, while also preventing their opponents from finding the net. The second part seems more achievable: Atalanta have repeatedly shown they can defend well. But goals are a different matter. In the current edition of the tournament, Raffaele Palladino’s men have scored more than two goals only once, and that came against Eintracht, whose defence does not stand up to any criticism. Moreover, in Dortmund the Italians even enjoyed territorial superiority, but failed to make it count, producing an xG of just 0.47.
Prediction: Under 3 goals