Matchday 6 of the 2024/25 Champions League group stage between Atalanta (Italy) and Real Madrid (Spain) will take place on December 10 at the Gewiss Stadium in Bergamo. Atalanta vs. Real Madrid: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Referee: Szymon Marciniak (Poland)
Matches – 10 (International matches, 2023/24–2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 39;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.9;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 23;
Penalties – 30%.
Predicted lineups for Atalanta vs. Real Madrid
Atalanta (3-4-2-1): Marco Carnesecchi – Odilon Kossounou, Isak Hien, Sead Kolašinac – Raoul Bellanova, Marten de Roon, Éderson, Matteo Ruggeri – Ademola Lookman, Charles De Ketelaere – Mateo Retegui.
Real Madrid (4-5-1): Thibaut Courtois – Lucas Vázquez, Raúl Asensio, Fran García, Antonio Rüdiger – Federico Valverde, Dani Ceballos, Jude Bellingham, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Vinícius Júnior – Kylian Mbappé.
Atalanta
The Bergamaschi thrashed Young Boys 6-1 in the last round. This was their second big win in the Champions League group stage, having previously defeated Shakhtar 3-0. Notably, both victories were achieved away from home. Atalanta also beat Stuttgart 2-0 on their turf. However, on home soil, the club has only managed draws against Arsenal and Celtic, both ending 0-0. It's worth mentioning that the goal conceded against the Swiss side is the only one Gian Piero Gasperini's team has allowed in this Champions League campaign.
Defender Davide Zappacosta, midfielder Juan Cuadrado, and forward Gianluca Scamacca will miss the game due to injuries.
- Atalanta has lost only once in their last eight matches in this European competition (3 wins and 4 draws).
- The Bergamaschi have failed to win the first half in nine consecutive home Champions League matches (5 draws and 4 losses).
- However, in the second half, the Italians have not lost in eight consecutive matches in this tournament (4 wins and 4 draws).
Real Madrid
The Spaniards lost their last two group stage matches in the Champions League. First, they were defeated 3-1 at home by Milan, and then 2-0 away to Liverpool. The club had not lost two consecutive Champions League matches since April 2022. After five rounds, Madrid has only two victories, both at home against Stuttgart (3-1) and Borussia Dortmund (5-2). With six points, Real is only 24th in the standings.
Defenders Ferland Mendy, David Alaba, Dani Carvajal, and Éder Militão, as well as midfielder Eduardo Camavinga, will not play in this match due to injuries.
- Both teams have scored in 8 of Real Madrid's last 11 Champions League matches during regular time.
- The club has not won away after 90 minutes in four consecutive matches in this tournament (2 draws and 2 losses).
- At least two goals have been scored in the second half in 11 of Madrid's last 14 away Champions League matches.
Atalanta vs. Real Madrid: Match Prediction
In August this year, the opponents met in the UEFA Super Cup, where Madrid defeated the Italians 2-0. Additionally, the teams played two more matches in the 2020/21 Champions League playoffs, with the Spaniards winning both (3-1 and 1-0). Despite some challenges in this year's Champions League, Madrid, in my opinion, should advance to the next stage of the European competition, directly to the Round of 16. To achieve this, Real needs to win the remaining three rounds. The upcoming match in Italy will be the toughest, followed by easier games against Salzburg and Brest.
As for Atalanta, they perform better away in the Champions League, while at home, the club hasn't often pleased their fans – in the last 10 home matches in this European competition, the Italians have only one victory, and that was against Young Boys (5 draws and 4 losses). Nevertheless, I do not recommend betting on a straightforward victory for the visitors, as the Spaniards have injury concerns.
My prediction – Real Madrid with a handicap (0)