The Matchday 1 clash of the Champions League 2025/26 group stage between Athletic (Spain) and Arsenal (England) will take place on September 16 at San Mamés Stadium in Bilbao. Athletic vs. Arsenal: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Athletic
The Basques finished fourth in La Liga last season, earning a spot in the Champions League group stage. This is only the team's second participation in this tournament in the 21st century. In their first appearance, Athletic played in the main round of this European competition in the 2014/15 season, finishing third in their group with just 7 points. It is also worth mentioning that over the past seven years, the Spaniards have only played in European competitions twice (reaching the Europa League semi-finals last season).
- The team has not lost in regular time in 10 of their last 14 Europa League games (8 wins and 2 draws).
- At least 3 goals were scored in 6 of Athletic's last 8 Europa League matches.
- The Basques won in regular time in 6 of their last 7 home Europa League encounters.
Predicted lineup for Athletic (4-3-3)
Unai Simón – Yuri Berchiche, Dani Vivian, Jesús Areso, Aitor Paredes – Unai Gómez, Mikel Jauregizar, Oihan Sancet – Gorka Guruzeta, Álex Berenguer, Iñaki Williams.
Forward Nico Williams and midfielder Beñat Prados will miss the match due to injuries.
Arsenal
The Gunners are entering the Champions League group stage for the third consecutive season after finishing second in the Premier League. In the previous two editions, the club reached the quarter-finals and semi-finals once each. In the last edition of the European competition, the Londoners finished third in the group stage, securing 6 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. They then easily overcame PSV and Real Madrid, but were defeated in both semi-final matches by the eventual tournament winners PSG (0-1 and 1-2). Notably, the club ranks among the top five favorites for the tournament, holding the 5th position.
- The club has not lost in regular time in 8 of their last 10 Champions League games (7 wins and 1 draw).
- At least 3 goals were scored in 9 of Arsenal's last 10 matches in this European competition.
- Both teams scored in regular time in 5 of the Gunners' last away matches in this tournament.
Predicted lineup for Arsenal (4-3-3)
David Raya – Gabriel Magalhães, Jurrien Timber, Cristian Mosquera, Riccardo Calafiori – Martín Zubimendi, Declan Rice, Mikel Merino – Eberechi Eze, Noni Madueke, Viktor Gyökeres.
Forwards Bukayo Saka, Kai Havertz, and Gabriel Jesus, defender Ben White, and midfielder Martin Ødegaard will miss the upcoming match due to injuries. The participation of defender William Saliba and midfielder Christian Nørgaard is doubtful.
Referee
Donatas Rumšas (Lithuania)
Matches – 12 (International matches, 2024/25–2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 38;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.2;
Red cards shown – 4;
Average fouls per match – 24;
Penalties – 25%.
Match Prediction: Athletic vs. Arsenal
The visitors are the favorites for the upcoming clash. Experience at such a high level plays a significant role and could be crucial. However, securing 3 points for the English side is unlikely to come without maximum effort. The Basques are very strong at home in European competitions and in La Liga. Athletic aims to delight their fans with a prolific performance, having scored in 26 of their last 28 home matches on the European stage.
The Gunners boast a strong attack, having scored in 9 of their last 10 Champions League matches. In this series, the club scored at least two goals 8 times. I anticipate that in the upcoming match, both teams will manage to score three or more goals. Such a number of goals were scored in 6 of Athletic's last 8 European matches and in 9 of Arsenal's last 10 Champions League games.
My prediction – Total over 2.5 goals
