The Matchday 1 clash of the 2025/26 Champions League group stage between Athletic (Spain) and Arsenal (England) will take place on September 16 at the San Mamés Stadium in Bilbao. Athletic vs. Arsenal: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Athletic
The Basque side finished fourth in La Liga last season, earning a spot in the Champions League group stage. This marks only their second appearance in the competition this century. In their previous participation during the 2014/15 season, Athletic finished third in their group, collecting just 7 points. Additionally, over the last seven years, the Spaniards have only played in European competitions twice (reaching the Europa League semi-finals last season).
- The team has not lost in regular time in 10 of their last 14 Europa League games (8 wins and 2 draws).
- At least 3 goals were scored in 6 of Athletic's last 8 Europa League matches.
- The Basque side won in regular time in 6 of their last 7 home Europa League encounters.
Predicted lineup for Athletic (4-3-3)
Unai Simón – Yuri Berchiche, Dani Vivian, Jesús Areso, Aitor Paredes – Unai Gómez, Mikel Jauregi, Oihan Sancet – Gorka Guruzeta, Álex Berenguer, Iñaki Williams.
Forward Nico Williams and midfielder Beñat Prados will miss the match due to injuries.
Arsenal
The Gunners are entering the Champions League group stage for the third consecutive season after finishing second in the Premier League. In the previous two editions, the club reached the quarter-finals and the semi-finals once each. Last time in the European competition, the Londoners finished third in the group stage with 6 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. They then easily progressed past PSV and Real Madrid but lost both semi-final legs to the eventual tournament winners PSG (0-1 and 1-2).
- The club has not lost in regular time in 8 of their last 10 Champions League games (7 wins and 1 draw).
- At least 3 goals were scored in 9 of Arsenal's last 10 matches in this European competition.
- Both teams scored in regular time in 5 of Arsenal's last away matches in this tournament.
Predicted lineup for Arsenal (4-3-3)
David Raya – Gabriel Magalhães, Jurrien Timber, Cristian Mosquera, Riccardo Calafiori – Martín Zubimendi, Declan Rice, Mikel Merino – Eberechi Eze, Noni Madueke, Viktor Gyökeres.
Forwards Bukayo Saka, Kai Havertz, and Gabriel Jesus will miss the upcoming matches due to injuries. Defender William Saliba is doubtful for the game.
Referee
Donatas Rumšas (Lithuania)
Matches – 12 (International matches, 2024/25–2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 38;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.2;
Red cards shown – 4;
Average fouls per match – 24;
Penalties – 25%.
Athletic vs. Arsenal: Match Prediction
The visitors are favorites for the upcoming encounter. Experience at this high level matters and could be crucial. However, it is unlikely the English side will secure 3 points without maximum effort. The Basque team is very strong at home in European competitions and La Liga. Athletic aims to entertain their fans with a high-scoring game, having scored in 26 of their last 28 home matches in European competitions.
The Gunners boast a strong attack, having scored in 9 of their last 10 Champions League matches. In this series, the club scored at least two goals 8 times. I predict that in the upcoming match, the opponents will score three or more goals. Such a number of goals was scored in 6 of Athletic's last 8 European matches and in 9 of Arsenal's last 10 Champions League fixtures.
My prediction – Total over 2.5 goals
