The semifinal match of the Spanish Super Cup between Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid will take place on January 8 at Prince Abdullah Al-Faisal Stadium in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid finished last season in 3rd place in the La Liga table, which earned the team the right to compete in the Spanish Super Cup. The side is preparing to take part in this tournament for the 10th time; in nine previous appearances the team won two trophies, although the most recent was in 2014. The side missed the previous Super Cup: in 2024 the team was eliminated at the semi-final stage, losing a high-scoring derby with Real after extra time (3:5).
- The team won 9 of its previous 11 matches in the La Liga and the Copa del Rey.
- The side's run in Spanish competitions spans 11 matches (9 wins, 2 losses).
- At least 2 goals were scored in 5 of Atletico Madrid's last 6 matches in La Liga and the national cup.
Potential Atletico Madrid Lineup (4-4-2)*
Jan Oblak – Marcos Llorente, Marc Pubill, David Ganczko, Matteo Ruggeri – Pablo Barrios, Koke, Alex Baena, Giuliano Simeone – Alexander Sorloth, Julian Alvarez.
Defender Clement Lenglet is unavailable due to injury.
Real Madrid
Real Madrid finished last season in second place in the La Liga; the side also reached the Copa del Rey final, which earned the team the right to participate in the country's Super Cup. Throughout its history the club has appeared in this tournament 21 times, winning the trophy on 13 occasions. Only Barcelona (15) has more titles. The side last lifted this cup in 2024, when it defeated Barcelona 4:1 in the final. In the previous Super Cup edition the side suffered a heavy defeat to its Catalan rival (2:5).
- At least 2 goals were scored in 5 of Real Madrid's last 7 matches in the La Liga and the Copa del Rey.
- The club's run in Spanish competitions spans 5 matches (4 wins, 1 loss).
- The side conceded in 5 of its previous 7 matches in the La Liga and the Copa del Rey.
Potential Real Madrid Lineup (4-3-3)*
Thibaut Courtois – Federico Valverde, Raul Asensio, Antonio Rudiger, Alvaro Carreras – Eduardo Camavinga, Aurelien Tchouameni, Jude Bellingham – Rodrigo, Vinicius Junior, Gonzalo Garcia.
Midfielder Brahim Diaz is unavailable due to participation in the Africa Cup of Nations, and striker Endrick has moved to Lyon on loan. Defenders Trent Alexander-Arnold and Eder Militao will miss the match due to injuries; defender Antonio Rudiger is also very likely to miss the game. Forward Kylian Mbappé was included in the tournament squad, but his participation in the semi-final is highly unlikely.
Referee
Mateo Busquets (Italy)
Matches – 7 (the Copa del Rey, 2023/24–2025/26);
Yellow/Red Cards Shown (including second yellows) – 33;
Average Yellow/Red Cards Per Match – 4.7;
Red Cards – 1;
Average Fouls Per Match – 25;
Penalties – 57%.
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid: Match Prediction
Madrid derbies regularly produce vivid and intense contests, and it is rare for one of the opponents to fail to score at least once. As evidence, both teams scored in each of the last 10 head-to-head meetings between Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid across the La Liga, the Copa del Rey and the national Super Cup.
If we consider the clubs individually, the home side scored in 20 of their previous 21 matches in the league and the Copa del Rey. However, toward the end of 2025 the team started to make more defensive mistakes — as a result, in the last 5 fixtures in Spanish competitions the side kept a clean sheet only once. Real, for its part, scored in 6 of its last 7 matches in the La Liga and the Copa del Rey, while the club kept a clean sheet in only 2 of those 7 games.
Prediction: Both teams to score
* For each team the starting lineup from their last match is shown.