The second leg of the 2024/25 Champions League Round of 16 between Barcelona (Spain) and Benfica (Portugal) will take place on March 11 at the Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys. The first match ended 1-0 in favor of Barcelona. Barcelona vs. Benfica: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Barcelona
The Spanish side secured a hard-fought victory in the first leg, defeating their opponent 1-0 on away soil, despite playing with a man down from the middle of the first half. As a result, the club extended their unbeaten run in the Champions League to eight matches, winning seven and drawing one. To progress further in the tournament, Hans Flick's team needs only to avoid defeat at home. Advancing to the quarter-finals would match last season's success.
- The club has scored two or more goals in 7 of their last 8 matches in this European competition.
- Both teams scored in 12 of Barcelona's last 15 Champions League matches.
- At least three goals have been scored in 11 of the Catalans' last 12 games in this tournament.
Predicted lineup for Barcelona (4-3-3)
Wojciech Szczesny – Jules Kounde, Eric Garcia, Inigo Martinez, Ronald Araujo – Frenkie de Jong, Pedri, Dani Olmo – Lamine Yamal, Raphinha Dias, Robert Lewandowski.
Defender Andreas Christensen and midfielder Marc Bernal are sidelined due to injuries. Defender Pau Cubarsi will miss the match due to suspension. There is a possibility that goalkeeper Marc-André ter Stegen will be ready for this game.
Benfica
The Portuguese side suffered their fourth defeat in this season's Champions League. Interestingly, the Lisbon club has been unable to win at their home ground in this tournament for five matches (2 draws and 3 losses). To advance past the Spanish team, Benfica needs to win away by a margin of two or more goals. If the match ends with a one-goal victory for the Portuguese, extra time will be played. Notably, in their last two Champions League play-offs, the club reached the quarter-finals.
- The Lisbon team opened the scoring in 4 of their last 5 matches in this tournament.
- The team has won 5 of their last 6 away matches in this European competition.
- The club has scored in 6 of their last 7 away Champions League matches.
Predicted lineup for Benfica (4-3-3)
Anatoliy Trubin – Antonio Silva, Tomas Araujo, Samuel Dali, Nicolas Otamendi – Leandro Barreiro, Fredrik Aursnes, Orkun Kökçü – Andreas Schjelderup, Vangelis Pavlidis, Kerem Aktürkoğlu.
Midfielders Renato Sanches, Angel Di Maria, and Manu Silva, defender Alexander Bah, and forward Tiago Gouveia will miss the match due to injuries. Defender Alvaro Carreras is out due to an accumulation of yellow cards.
Referee
François Letexier (France)
Matches – 9 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 51;
Average yellow cards per match – 5.7;
Red cards shown – 3;
Average fouls per match – 20;
Penalties – 44%.
Match Prediction: Barcelona vs. Benfica
The Catalans showed character in the first leg, managing not only to avoid defeat while being a man down but also preventing their opponent from scoring. The favorite in this pair is clear, but the Spanish side is unlikely to secure a convincing victory at home. Hans Flick's team has no reason to take risks, as they already have a one-goal advantage. It is worth noting that Benfica is not a distinctly home team and performs much better away, so they could spring a surprise in Catalonia.
The Portuguese have suffered only one defeat in their last six away matches, winning five. They lost to a strong opponent – Bayern Munich (0-1). Noteworthy victories include strong opponents such as Juventus and Monaco (twice). Additionally, it is worth remembering that the last two encounters at Barcelona's home ground in the Champions League ended in a goalless draw. Therefore, I assume that the Lisbon side is unlikely to lose by a margin of two or more goals.
My prediction – Benfica with a handicap (+1.5)
