The matchday 24 Bundesliga fixture between Bayer 04 Leverkusen and 1.FSV Mainz 05 will take place on 28 February at the BayArena in Leverkusen. Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs 1.FSV Mainz 05: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Bayer 04 Leverkusen lost 0:1 to Union Berlin last time out, but remained sixth in the Bundesliga on 39 points. The gap to the Champions League places is just four points. After 22 matches, the team have scored 43 goals – fewer than the leaders, but a solid return for their current position. At the same time, the defence have conceded only 28 goals – the league’s third-best record behind Borussia Dortmund (22) and Bayern Munich (21). However, despite their reliable work at the back, the main issue for the home side remains inconsistency and an inability to score at key moments. That was evident against Union Berlin, when the team controlled the game but failed to take their chances and ultimately suffered a first defeat in five Bundesliga matches (three wins, one draw).
The club have scored at home in every match of the 2025/26 season.
In their last nine Bundesliga matches, the team have recorded five wins (one draw, three defeats).
In six of their previous eight home league matches, the hosts have kept a clean sheet.
Potential Bayer 04 Leverkusen Lineup (3-4-3)*
Janis Blaswich – Jarell Quansah, Robert Andrich, Edmond Tapsoba – Alejandro Grimaldo, Aleix Garcia, Ibrahim Maza, Exequiel Palacios – Patrik Schick, Ernest Poku, Lucas Vazquez.
Goalkeeper Mark Flekken and forward Nathan Tella are injured.
1.FSV Mainz 05
A 1:1 draw with Hamburg last time out only worsened 1.FSV Mainz 05’s position in the standings. The team remain close to the relegation zone, and time is running out to turn things around. After 23 matches, they sit 13th in the German top flight, and their current form is a major concern. Over the same 23 games, the team have scored just 26 goals – a figure among the five worst in the division. Away from home, defensive problems come to the fore: on average, the club concede more than two goals per match. In their last five Bundesliga away fixtures, 1.FSV Mainz 05 have managed only one win (two draws, two defeats), and the upcoming schedule offers little encouragement.
On the road in this league campaign, 1.FSV Mainz 05 have recorded only two wins (three draws, six defeats).
In six of the club’s last eight Bundesliga matches, at least three goals have been scored.
The club have scored in seven of their previous eight matches in this competition.
Potential 1.FSV Mainz 05 Lineup (3-5-2)*
Daniel Batz – Dominik Kohr, Stefan Bell, Stefan Posch – Silvan Widmer, Jae-sung Lee, Kaishu Sano, Nadiem Amiri, Danny da Costa – Philipp Tietz, Silas Katompa Mvumpa
Forwards Benedikt Hollerbach and Armindo Sito, as well as defenders Lennard Maloney, Stefan Bell, Maxim Dal, Antoni Caci, midfielder Sota Kawasaki and goalkeeper Robin Zentner will miss the match through injury. Defender Silvan Widmer is suspended.
Referee
Tobias Stieler (Germany)
Matches – 9 (Bundesliga, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 26;
Average yellow cards per match – 2.9;
Red cards shown – 3;
Average fouls per match – 21;
Penalties – 33%.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs 1.FSV Mainz 05: Match Prediction
Despite a poor performance last weekend, Bayer 04 Leverkusen remain in the race for European qualification. The defeat to Union Berlin left Kasper Hjulmand’s side further adrift of fourth place, but the upcoming match provides a chance to make amends. A difficult run of fixtures lies ahead, so it is important to pick up points now before their rivals pull away. One key factor could be the opponents’ numbers. On the one hand, 1.FSV Mainz 05 have been inefficient in attack away from home – averaging 0.8 goals per match. On the other, the visitors’ defence has also left a lot to be desired: in 11 away matches, 1.FSV Mainz 05 have conceded 24 goals – one of the worst records in the league.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen’s picture looks far more encouraging. In 11 home matches, the team have scored 24 goals. That figure may not be as impressive as Bayern Munich’s results, but it still ranks among the league’s top six. Defensively, the hosts have also posted excellent numbers: just 10 goals conceded, with only Borussia Dortmund boasting a better record – eight. The potential is further underlined by their home form: in their last five matches at BayArena, the team have registered three wins and two defeats, but those dropped points came only against the league’s leading sides, while the club deal confidently with teams from mid-table.
Against the backdrop of 1.FSV Mainz 05’s weak away numbers and Bayer 04 Leverkusen’s strong home results, the upcoming match gives the hosts a good chance to improve their standing and continue their push for European football.
Prediction: Bayer 04 Leverkusen to win
* For each team, the starting XI listed is the lineup from their previous match in this competition.