The Matchday 6 fixture of the group stage of the 2025/26 Champions League between Bayer Leverkusen (Germany) and Newcastle United (England) will take place on December 10 at the BayArena in Leverkusen. Bayer – Newcastle: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Referee: Serdar Gözübüyük (Netherlands)
Matches – 6 (International fixtures, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 34;
Average yellow cards per match – 5.7;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 31;
Penalties – 33%.
Bayer Leverkusen
Leverkusen have significantly improved their prospects of reaching the knockout stages following back-to-back victories. On the road they surprised by beating Benfica 1-0 and then Manchester City 2-0. As a result, the club has eight points and has closed the gap to the top eight to just two points. It’s worth noting that prior to the Lisbon game the Germans had gone five Champions League matches without a win (2 draws, 3 defeats). Also noteworthy: Bayer have not lost in 5 of their last 6 matches against Premier League opponents in European competition (3 wins and 2 draws), and kept a clean sheet in four of those meetings.
- No more than three goals were scored in 8 of Bayer’s last 10 Champions League matches.
- At least one team failed to score in 9 of the last 11 previous home matches for the Germans in this competition.
- Leverkusen have conceded more than one goal in only 2 of their last 8 home Champions League games.
Probable Bayer line-up (3-4-3)
Mark Flekken – Loïc Bade, Robert Andrich, Edmond Tapsoba – Ernest Poku, Aleix Garcia, Jonas Hofmann, Ibrahim Maza – Malik Tillman, Patrik Schick, Martin Terrier.
Midfielders Lucas Vázquez, Ezequiel Fernández and Exequiel Palacios, as well as defender Axel Tape, will miss the game through injury.
Newcastle United
The visitors lost away to Marseille 1-2 in the last round. That was their second defeat in this group stage – they also lost 1-2 at home to Barcelona at the start of the tournament. Between those defeats the team recorded three clean-sheet wins. Eddie Howe’s side sit 11th in the group standings and are just one point off the top eight. Interestingly, Newcastle met Bayer in the 2002/03 Champions League group stage and beat the Germans 3-1 in both meetings. Also, in their seven previous encounters with Bundesliga sides the English have avoided defeat on five occasions (4 wins and 1 draw).
- Exactly two or three goals were scored in 7 of Newcastle’s last 8 Champions League matches.
- Newcastle have failed to win in 4 of their last 5 away matches in this competition (2 draws and 2 defeats).
- The English side won the first half in 6 of their last 7 Champions League fixtures (1 draw).
Probable Newcastle line-up (4-3-3)
Aaron Ramsdale – Valentino Livramento, Malick Thiaw, Fabian Schär, Dan Burn – Bruno Guimarães, Jacob Ramsey, Joelinton – Anthony Gordon, Anthony Elanga, Nick Woltemade.
Due to injury goalkeeper Nick Pope, forward Will Osula, and defenders Sven Botman, Kieran Trippier and Emil Kraft will miss the match.
Match Prediction – Bayer Leverkusen vs Newcastle United
Both sides have a realistic chance of progressing to the next round of the Champions League, but they need to pick up as many points as possible in the final two group games. Bayer’s current league position forces them to play for a win: their remaining opponents are not among Europe’s elite, so there is a genuine opportunity to finish in the top eight. I believe the Germans can prevail in this tie given they are at home and have solid recent form against English clubs.
In their last eight home Champions League matches Bayer have suffered just two defeats, both against top opponents – Bayern and PSG (with 4 wins and 2 draws). The team rarely concedes more than one goal at the BayArena. Newcastle, meanwhile, have managed only one away win in their previous five Champions League fixtures, and only in that win did they score more than one goal. For that reason I expect the hosts not to lose and to likely score more than the visitors.
My prediction – Bayer Leverkusen with a (0) handicap
