The first leg of the 2024/25 Champions League Round of 16 between Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen will be held on March 5 at the Allianz Arena in Munich. Bayern vs. Bayer: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Bayern Munich
The Munich side overcame Celtic in the previous round. After a 2-1 away win over the Scots, Vincent Kompany's men settled for a 1-1 draw at home. This draw was their first in the last 11 Champions League matches (6 wins, 4 losses). Notably, Bayern kept a clean sheet in only two of these games. Additionally, the club has reached the quarter-finals in five of the last Champions League editions.
- The team has not scored more than two goals in 7 of their last 9 Champions League matches.
- At home, the club has won 6 of their last 8 Champions League matches (2 draws).
- In 8 of their last 10 home games in this tournament, Munich has conceded no more than one goal.
Predicted lineup for Bayern Munich (4-5-1)
Manuel Neuer – Raphael Guerreiro, Dayot Upamecano, Kim Min-jae, Konrad Laimer – Kingsley Coman, Michael Olise, Leon Goretzka, Jamal Musiala, Leroy Sane – Harry Kane.
Bayer Leverkusen
Leverkusen skipped the playoff matches. In the main round, Xabi Alonso's team finished sixth, avoiding defeat in 6 of 8 matches (5 wins, 1 draw), with both losses occurring away. Interestingly, Bayer kept clean sheets in all their victories. Nevertheless, five clubs conceded fewer goals than Leverkusen. The Round of 16 has been a stumbling block for the team, as they have been eliminated at this stage in their last five appearances.
- At least one opponent failed to score in 7 of Bayer's last 9 Champions League matches.
- Away from home, the Germans have not won in 6 of their last 7 Champions League matches (2 draws, 4 losses).
- Leverkusen has scored in 4 of their last 5 away games in this tournament.
Predicted lineup for Bayer Leverkusen (4-3-3)
Matej Kovar – Alejandro Grimaldo, Jeremie Frimpong, Jonathan Tah, Nordi Mukiele – Exequiel Palacios, Robert Andrich, Granit Xhaka – Amine Adli, Florian Wirtz, Patrik Schick.
Referee
Michael Oliver (England)
Matches – 11 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 41;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.7;
Red cards shown – 2;
Average fouls per match – 21;
Penalties – 36%.
Bayern Munich vs. Bayer Leverkusen: Match Prediction
It hasn't been long since the last meeting between these teams. In the 22nd round of the Bundesliga, Bayern traveled to Leverkusen but seemingly forgot to show up on the pitch. Their first shot on target came in the 74th minute, and they failed to hit the target for the first time in the league since 2008. Leverkusen had numerous chances, hitting the crossbar twice and achieving 2.56 xG compared to Bayern's 0.07. This marked the sixth consecutive match in which Xabi Alonso's team did not lose to Munich (3 wins, 3 draws). The Spaniard became the first coach to achieve this feat. However, bookmakers still see Bayern as the favorite.
Bayern has secured six wins in this Champions League campaign, three of which were by more than one goal. However, the level of their opponents in these matches does not compare to that of Leverkusen. Bayer suffered two defeats in the main round: they faltered in Liverpool and conceded a decisive goal against Atletico in the 90th minute.
Bayern will undoubtedly regroup and seek to redeem themselves for their recent lackluster performance. However, it remains uncertain if this will be enough against such a challenging opponent. Meanwhile, Leverkusen is being offered a positive handicap. My prediction: Bayer with a handicap (+1)