The Matchday 6 fixture in the group stage of the 2025/26 Champions League between Benfica (Portugal) and Napoli (Italy) will take place on December 10 at Estádio da Luz. Benfica – Napoli: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Benfica
José Mourinho's side beat Ajax 2-0 away in the last round. The result ended Benfica's four-match losing run in the Champions League and saw the Lisbon club score for the first time after a run of four goalless matches in this competition. The win provided their first three points in the group stage and lifted them to 30th place in the standings. Notably, Benfica have lost only two of their last eight European ties against Italian opposition (3 wins, 3 draws).
- The club failed to win in 7 of their last 9 home Champions League matches (2 draws, 5 defeats).
- At least one of the opponents failed to score in 8 of the team's last 9 European fixtures.
- No more than two goals were scored in 7 of Benfica's last 9 matches in the Champions League.
Predicted Benfica line-up (4-5-1)
Anatoliy Trubin – Amar Dedić, António Silva, Nicolás Otamendi, Samuel Dali – Rodrigo Regu, Enzo Barrenechea, Georgiy Sudakov, Richard Rios, Fredrik Aursnes – Vangelis Pavlidis.
Defender Alexander Bah, midfielder Nuno Félix, and forwards Dodi Lukebakio and Bruma will miss the game through injury. The availability of striker Henrique Araújo is in doubt.
Napoli
Napoli defeated Qarabağ 2-0 at home in the last round, registering only their second win in seven Champions League outings in this recent run (2 draws, 3 defeats). Antonio Conte's men kept a second consecutive clean sheet in the competition and, for the third group-stage match, scored at least twice. In the table, Napoli sit on seven points in 20th place. It is worth noting the club have lost only two of their last 15 European matches against Portuguese opposition (9 wins, 4 draws).
- The team have lost their last four away matches in the Champions League.
- At least two second-half goals were scored in 5 of the club's previous 7 fixtures in this competition.
- Napoli have conceded at least two goals in each of their last four away Champions League matches.
Predicted Napoli line-up (3-4-3)
Vanja Milinković-Savić – Alessandro Buongiorno, Amir Rrahmani, Sam Beukema – Matías Olivera, Eljif Elmas, Scott McTominay, Giovanni Di Lorenzo – David Neres, Rasmus Højlund, Noa Lang.
Goalkeeper Alex Meret, midfielders Stanislav Lobotka, André-Frank Zambo Anguissa, Billy Gilmour and Kevin De Bruyne, as well as forward Romelu Lukaku, will miss the match through injury. Defender Miguel Gutiérrez is doubtful.
Referee: Slavko Vinčić (Slovenia)
Matches – 7 (International fixtures, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 15;
Average yellow cards per match – 2.1;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 25;
Penalties – 43%.
Benfica vs Napoli: Match Prediction
Although Benfica have struggled to produce consistently potent attacking displays in the group stage, I expect an improvement in their creative output at home. Historically the Portuguese side have seldom struggled to break down opponents at Estádio da Luz: in their last 11 home Champions League matches they failed to score on only three occasions. At the same time, Benfica have been vulnerable at the back — they conceded in 13 of their previous 17 home fixtures in this competition.
Napoli's away form in Europe has been inconsistent, but they favour an attacking approach. In their last 14 Champions League away matches the Italians failed to score only three times and managed at least two goals on seven occasions. Conversely, their defensive record on the road is far from watertight: Napoli have kept just one clean sheet in their last seven away European fixtures.
I anticipate an open game with goals at both ends, so my prediction: Both teams to score – Yes
