The Matchday 1 clash of the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League group stage between Benfica (Portugal) and Qarabag (Azerbaijan) will take place on September 16 at the Estádio da Luz in Lisbon. Benfica vs. Qarabag: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Benfica
The team finished second in the last Portuguese championship and started their Champions League journey from the third qualifying round. Bruno Lage's side overcame Nice (2-0, 2-0) and Fenerbahce (0-0, 1-0), earning a spot in the main stage of this tournament for the fifth consecutive time. During this period, Benfica reached the quarter-finals twice and last season was halted in the Round of 16. This will be the 45th season for the Portuguese club in this European competition, with only Real Madrid having more appearances (56). Moreover, the club has not lost in seven of their last nine Champions League matches (5 wins, 2 draws).
- The team opened the scoring in 7 of their last 10 Champions League encounters.
- At home, Benfica has not won in 5 of their last 7 matches in this tournament (2 draws, 3 losses).
- In 5 of their last 7 home games in the Champions League, the Portuguese have not scored more than two goals.
Predicted lineup for Benfica (4-3-3)
Anatoliy Trubin – António Silva, Samuel Dall, Nicolás Otamendi, Tomás Araújo – Richard Rios, Enzo Barrenechea, Florentino – Fredrik Aursnes, Evangelos Pavlidis, Andreas Schjelderup.
Defenders Amar Dedic, Alexander Bah, midfielder Manu Silva, and forwards Dodi Lukebakio, Bruma are injured.
Qarabag
The team has won the Azerbaijani championship for four consecutive seasons, but during this period, they failed to advance past the Champions League qualifying rounds. Thus, this is only the second time in their history that the club has reached the main stage of the Champions League. In the current tournament, Gurban Gurbanov's side defeated Shelbourne (3-0, 1-0), Shkendija (1-0, 5-1), and Ferencvaros (3-1, 2-3). Last season, the Azerbaijanis participated in the Europa League, where they finished in last place, 36th overall. Notably, Qarabag has not drawn in the Champions League for 12 matches (8 wins, 4 losses).
- The team's scoring streak in the Champions League spans 6 matches.
- At least three goals have been scored in 5 of Qarabag's last 7 away matches in this tournament.
- The club has won 5 of their last 6 away Champions League encounters (1 loss).
Predicted lineup for Qarabag (4-5-1)
Mateusz Kochalski – Behlul Mustafazade, Kevin Medina, Mateus Silva, Elvin Jafarguliyev – Abdellah Zoubir, Kady, Leandro Andrade, Pedro Bicallo, Marko Jankovic – Nariman Akhundzade.
Referee
Erik Lambrechts (Belgium)
Matches – 12 (International matches, 2024/25–2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 41;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.4;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 22;
Penalties – 25%.
Match Prediction: Benfica vs. Qarabag
The Azerbaijanis demonstrated excellent results in the qualifying rounds, but it's important to consider the level of their opponents. Against stronger teams, Qarabag is likely to face greater challenges. This was evident in the previous Europa League, where Gurban Gurbanov's side suffered 7 defeats in the group stage, four of which were heavy losses. The club even conceded in their only victory.
The Portuguese delivered several bright and high-scoring matches in the last Champions League. Against a less formidable opponent, Bruno Lage's side will also aim to play attacking football. However, Benfica's defense lacks reliability: in their last 7 home games in the Champions League, the club conceded 12 goals. Qarabag, having scored in 10 of their last 11 away matches in this tournament, could capitalize on this.
The hosts are expected to secure three points in a high-scoring match. My prediction: Benfica to win and total over 2.5 goals