The first leg of the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League Round of 16 between Borussia Dortmund (Germany) and Lille (France) will take place on March 4 at Signal Iduna Park. Borussia Dortmund vs. Lille: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Borussia Dortmund
The German club successfully advanced past the previous round, virtually securing their place in the Round of 16 after a 3-0 away victory over Sporting. The return leg ended in a goalless draw, which snapped Borussia's nine-match scoring streak in the Champions League. Although they had a chance to score, Serhou Guirassy missed a penalty. Notably, the forward had scored in five consecutive Champions League matches prior to this game. Additionally, Dortmund has reached the Round of 16 in this tournament for the third consecutive season.
- At least three goals have been scored in 5 of the club's last 6 Champions League matches.
- Borussia has not lost in 5 of their last 7 Champions League games (4 wins, 1 draw).
- In 5 of their last 6 home matches in this tournament, the team has not conceded more than one goal.
Predicted lineup for Borussia Dortmund (4-5-1)
Gregor Kobel – Daniel Svensson, Nico Schlotterbeck, Waldemar Anton, Ramy Bensebaini – Karim Adeyemi, Marcel Sabitzer, Julian Brandt, Pascal Gross, Emre Can – Serhou Guirassy.
Midfielder Felix Nmecha is injured.
Lille
Seventh place in the overall stage standings allowed Bruno Génésio's side to avoid the additional burden of playoff matches. The French team remained unbeaten in 6 of 8 matches in the main round (5 wins, 1 draw), scoring 17 goals, the third-best result among the top-8 clubs. However, Lille's defense lacked reliability, with the team conceding goals in six consecutive Champions League games. Notably, the club has reached the Round of 16 in the Champions League for the third time in its history but has never progressed further.
- Both teams scored in Lille's last 6 matches in this European competition.
- The French team has not won in 5 of their last 7 away Champions League matches (1 draw, 4 losses).
- In 5 of their last 6 away games in this tournament, the club has found the back of the net.
Predicted lineup for Lille (4-5-1)
Lucas Chevalier – Gabriel Gudmundsson, Alessandro, Bafodé Diakité, Thomas Meunier – Ngalayel Mukau, Ayoub Bouaddi, Hákon Haraldsson, Rémy Cabella, Osame Sahraoui – Jonathan David.
Forward Edon Zhegrova, defenders Samuel Umtiti and Tiago Santos will miss the match due to injury.
Referee
José María Sánchez Martínez (Spain)
Matches – 7 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 30;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.3;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 20;
Penalties – 14%.
Borussia Dortmund vs. Lille: Match Prediction
Niko Kovac's side did not concede a goal against Sporting, although the Germans had not kept a clean sheet in their previous three Champions League matches. It's worth noting that the Portuguese team had significant lineup issues, which affected their attacking play. Borussia played four home matches in the main round of this tournament, keeping a clean sheet in only one of them. That opponent was Sturm, who outscored only two teams in the overall stage.
Lille failed to score against Sporting in the first round but then embarked on a seven-match scoring streak in the Champions League. Even defensive stalwarts like Liverpool, Juventus, and Atletico suffered from the French side during this period. In away Champions League matches, the club has scored in 10 of their last 12 games. Therefore, I believe bookmakers are underestimating the visitors' chances of scoring.
My prediction: Lille Individual Total Over 0.5
