Matchday 30 of Ligue 1 features a clash between Brest and Lens on April 20 at Stade Francis-Le Blé. Brest vs. Lens: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Brest
The Bretons played to a 3-3 draw in their previous Ligue 1 match against Saint-Étienne. This result extended their unbeaten run in the league to five matches (3 wins, 2 draws). Notably, Brest has scored at least twice in their last three league games. The club remains in 8th place in the Ligue 1 standings, but their gap from the European competition spots has increased to six points due to the dropped points in the last round. It's worth mentioning that the team performs better at home, having earned 27 points at Stade Francis-Le Blé compared to 17 away.
- The club has scored at least twice in 7 of their last 8 home matches in Ligue 1.
- At least 3 goals have been scored in 6 of Brest's last 8 home games in the league.
- The Bretons have not lost in 11 of their last 13 matches in this tournament (7 wins, 4 draws).
Predicted lineup for Brest (4-5-1)
Marco Bizot – Kenny Lala, Brendan Chardonnet, Abdoulaye Ndiaye, Massadio Haidara – Pierre Lees-Melou, Hugo Magnetti, Mahdi Camara, Mathias Pereira Lage, Abdallah Sima – Ludovic Ajorque.
Defender Kenny Lala is suspended due to an accumulation of yellow cards.
Lens
The club suffered a surprising 0-2 defeat to Reims in the last round. Interestingly, the previous four Ligue 1 matches for Lens ended with a 1-0 scoreline, with the team winning three of them. Lens remains in 9th place in the French championship standings, but their gap from the European competition spots has increased to eight points. It's noteworthy that matches involving Lens are among the lowest-scoring in this Ligue 1 season, averaging 2.2 goals per game.
- The club's uncompromising streak in the French top division stands at 14 matches (6 wins, 8 losses).
- One team failed to score in 9 of Lens's last 11 league matches.
- No more than 2 goals have been scored in 7 of the club's last 10 away Ligue 1 matches.
Predicted lineup for Lens (3-4-3)
Mathew Ryan – Facundo Medina, Jimmy Cabot, Jonathan Gradit – Deiver Machado, Andy Diouf, Adrien Thomasson, Kylian Antonio – Anass Zaroury, Gaël Kakuta, Florian Sotoca.
Defender Deiver Machado is unavailable due to an accumulation of yellow cards.
Referee
Benoît Millot (France)
Matches – 14 (Ligue 1, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 57;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.1;
Red cards shown – 7;
Average fouls per match – 25;
Penalties – 36%.
Match Prediction: Brest vs. Lens
Both teams unexpectedly dropped points in the last round against underdogs. Lens even managed to lose at home to Reims without scoring. However, it's worth noting that William Still's side was quite unlucky, as the opposing goalkeeper had an outstanding performance, despite Lens dominating the match with 37 shots on Reims' goal. I don't expect Lens to face a similar situation in two consecutive games. The club is in decent form and, before the illogical loss in the last round, had won 3 of their last 4 Ligue 1 matches (1 defeat), including a win over Saint-Étienne, which Brest couldn't handle in their previous match.
Moreover, Lens regularly picks up points away from home in this championship, having not lost in 10 of 14 away matches (6 wins, 4 draws). Additionally, recent head-to-head statistics favor the visitors: the team has not lost to Brest in 5 of their last 6 meetings in Ligue 1 and the Coupe de France (4 wins, 1 draw). Lens also confidently defeated their upcoming opponent in the first-round match with a score of 2-0.
Therefore, I believe the visitors will at least avoid defeat. My prediction – Lens win or draw