The Matchday 1 clash in Ligue 1 between Brest and Lille will take place on August 17 at Stade Francis-Le Blé. Brest vs. Lille: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Brest
The Bretons, after a successful 2023/24 season where they finished 3rd in Ligue 1, ended up only 9th in the last edition of the tournament. In the previous French championship, the club avoided defeat in 20 out of 34 matches (15 wins, 5 draws), but still finished with a negative goal difference of 52:59. However, it's worth noting that in last season's Ligue 1 home matches, Brest performed much better, earning 33 points at home compared to just 17 away, with a goal difference of 31:21. During the break before the new championship, the team played 5 friendly matches, winning 4 and drawing 1, scoring in all encounters.
In the summer transfer window, the club lost their main goalkeeper Marco Bizot, who was replaced by Monaco's reserve goalkeeper Radoslaw Majecki. The Bretons didn't make significant reinforcements, and several key players left the team, including midfielder Mahdi Camara and forward Mathias Pereira Lage.
- Brest scored in 7 of their last 8 matches in the French championship.
- At home, the club has not lost in 6 of their last 7 Ligue 1 matches (4 wins, 2 draws).
- The Bretons opened the scoring in 5 of their last 6 home matches in this tournament.
Predicted lineup for Brest (4-3-3)
Radoslaw Majecki – Julien Le Cardinal, Kenny Lala, Bradley Locko, Brendan Chardonnet – Kamory Doumbia, Pierre Lees-Melou, Hugo Magnetti – Ludovic Ajorque, Mama Baldé, Romain Del Castillo.
All players are ready for the upcoming match.
Lille
The team has been showing consistent results in Ligue 1, finishing fifth twice (2022/23 and 2024/25) and fourth once (2023/24) over the last three seasons. In the previous championship, Lille suffered only 8 defeats (17 wins, 9 draws) and became the second most reliable defensive team with 36 goals conceded, only PSG had fewer (35). However, it should be noted that 6 out of their 8 defeats last season occurred away from home, including a 0-2 loss to Brest. During the offseason, Lille played 6 friendly matches, winning only half of them (1 draw, 2 losses in regular time).
The main losses in the squad were the departure of long-time attacking leader Jonathan David, who moved to Juventus, and main goalkeeper Lucas Chevalier to PSG. Besides them, other key players left the team, including defenders Bafodé Diakité, Gabriel Gudmundsson, Samuel Umtiti, and midfielders Angel Gomes, Rémy Cabella. Notable acquisitions are few, with the arrival of forward Olivier Giroud, and Turkish goalkeeper Berke Özer was signed as a replacement for Chevalier.
- The club has not lost in 5 of their last 6 Ligue 1 matches, securing 4 wins.
- Lille's uncompromising away series in the championship equals 8 matches (3 wins, 5 losses).
- The team failed to score more than 1 goal in 7 of their last 10 away matches in the French elite league.
Predicted lineup for Lille (4-3-3)
Arnaud Bodart – Nathan Ngoy, Alessandro, Aïssa Mandi, Romain Perraud – Ngalaiel Mukau, Benjamin André, Hákon Haraldsson – Marius Brukhulm, Olivier Giroud, Félix Correia.
Due to health issues, Lille will be without goalkeeper Marc-Aurèle Caillard, defender Aïssa Mandi, midfielder Ethan Mbappé, and forwards Edon Zhegrova, Osame Sahraoui. Defender Thomas Meunier is unavailable due to suspension.
Referee
Clément Turpin (France)
Matches – 18 (Ligue 1, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 55;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.1;
Red cards shown – 3;
Average fouls per match – 23;
Penalties – 28%.
Match Prediction: Brest vs. Lille
Both teams have lost key players before the start of the new season, with Lille's losses being particularly notable. Therefore, I don't think this match will be easy for the visitors, and I disagree with the bookmakers on identifying a favorite for the upcoming match. I believe the teams' chances of success should at least be equal, if not slightly in favor of the Bretons. As mentioned earlier, Brest is strong at home and didn't lose in 13 of 17 home matches in the last championship, securing 10 wins. Moreover, they have been successful against Lille at home, remaining unbeaten in 5 consecutive Ligue 1 meetings (3 wins, 2 draws).
Lille is also a home team, performing poorly away. This was further demonstrated in the previous championship, where 6 of their 8 season defeats occurred away. They lost 4 of their last 6 away matches in the tournament.
Therefore, I am confident that the hosts will earn points in the upcoming match. My prediction – "Brest to win or draw"
