The second leg of the 2025/26 Champions League second qualifying round between Kairat (Kazakhstan) and KuPS (Finland) will take place on July 29 at the Central Stadium in Almaty. The score of the first match was 2-0 in favor of KuPS. Kairat vs. KuPS: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Kairat
Rafael Urazbakhtin's side lost 0-2 to the Finns in the first match. This defeat was their second in the last seven Champions League matches (3 wins, 2 draws). Notably, Kairat failed to score only in the matches they lost. To advance to the next round, the Kazakh team needs to defeat their opponents by at least three goals, but they have not achieved such a big victory in the Champions League before.
- No more than two goals have been scored in 5 of Kairat's last 7 Champions League matches.
- The team has conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches in this tournament.
- At home, the club has not lost in 9 of their last 12 European matches (6 wins, 3 draws).
Predicted lineup for Kairat (5-3-2)
Alexander Zarutsky – Alexander Martynovich, Damir Kasabulat, Egor Sorokin, Erkin Tapalov, Luis Mata – Valery Gromyko, Alexander Mrynsky, Dan Glazer – Edmilson Filho, Jorginho Costa.
KuPS
The Finns have made a strong case for advancing to the next round. One of the keys to their success was KuPS's reliable defense: the team kept a clean sheet for the third consecutive Champions League match. In the return leg, Jarkko Wiss's side can even afford to lose by a narrow margin. If the club loses by exactly two goals, extra time will be required. KuPS's last heavy defeat in European competitions was in 2022.
- The team has kept a clean sheet in 5 of their last 7 European matches.
- Away from home, KuPS has not won in 7 of their last 8 international matches (4 draws, 3 losses).
- In 6 of their last 8 away European games, the Finns failed to score.
Predicted lineup for KuPS (3-4-3)
Johannes Kreidl – Ibrahima Cissé, Nicholas Hämäläinen, Samuli Miettinen – Doni Arifi, Otto Ruoppi, Petteri Pennanen, Jaakko Oksanen – Mohamed Toure, Joslin Luyeye-Lutumba, Saku Savolainen.
Referee
Radoslav Gidjenov (Bulgaria)
Matches – 8 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 34;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.2;
Red cards shown – 2;
Average fouls per match – 19;
Penalties – 13%.
Match Prediction: Kairat vs. KuPS
The Finns will likely focus on defending their lead. KuPS has a comfortable advantage, and Jarkko Wiss's main task will be to prevent the opponent from scoring. The team has successfully managed this in all three matches of the current Champions League campaign, and overall, they allow few chances even in away European matches. The Finns have not conceded more than two goals in 7 of their last 8 away international games, and they kept a clean sheet in 4 of those matches.
Kairat needs to score at least two goals, but such scoring is not always demonstrated even in the national championship. In this year's Kazakhstan Premier League, Rafael Urazbakhtin's side has scored three or more goals in only 5 of 17 matches, and in four of those games, their opponents were tournament outsiders. In the Champions League, the Kazakh team has never scored more than two goals.
My prediction: Kairat ITM 2.5
