The first leg of the 2025/26 UEFA Conference League round-of-16 tie between Lech Poznan (Poland) and Shakhtar Donetsk (Ukraine) will take place on 12 March at the Poznan Stadium. Lech Poznan vs Shakhtar Donetsk: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Lech Poznan
The Polish champions are taking part in this European competition for the third time and have reached the round of 16 for the second time. In the 2022/23 season, the team managed to go as far as the quarter-finals. In this campaign, the club finished 11th in the league phase, having surged up the standings thanks to two wins and a draw in the final three rounds. In the play-off ties, Lech Poznan came through comfortably against KuPS, beating the Finnish side in both legs (2:0 and 1:0).
- The Polish side are unbeaten in five straight matches in the UEFA Conference League (four wins and one draw).
- Exactly two or three goals have been scored in five of Lech Poznan's last seven matches in this tournament.
- Both teams have scored in 11 of the club's previous 14 games in this competition.
Potential Lech Poznan Lineup (4-4-2)*
Bartosz Mrozek – Mateusz Skrzypczak, Robert Gumny, Wojciech Monka, Michal Gurgul – Timothy Ouma, Leo Bengtsson, Gisli Thordarson, Taofeek Ismaheel – Luis Palma, Yannick Agnero.
Shakhtar Donetsk
The Ukrainian side are playing in this tournament for the first time and have reached the round of 16 straight away, bypassing the play-off round. In the league phase, the club suffered just one defeat, which came against another representative of the Polish top flight, Legia Warsaw (1:2). In the other five matches, the Donetsk side recorded four wins and one draw. As a result, Shakhtar Donetsk finished sixth. It is also worth noting that over the last five years the miners have reached this stage of European competition for the third time (previously in the Europa League).
- The team are unbeaten in four straight matches in this tournament (three wins and one draw).
- Shakhtar Donetsk have kept clean sheets in three of their last four games in the UEFA Conference League.
- Exactly two or three goals have been scored in six of the Ukrainians' last eight matches in this competition.
Potential Shakhtar Donetsk Lineup (4-1-4-1)*
Dmytro Riznyk – Mykola Matvienko, Valeriy Bondar, Pedro Henrique, Yukhym Konoplia – Yegor Nazaryna – Pedrinho, Newerton, Alisson, Marlon Gomes – Lassina Traore.
Referee
Rohit Saggi (Norway)
Matches – 8 (International fixtures, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 23;
Average yellow cards per match – 2.9;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 27;
Penalties – 25%.
Lech Poznan vs Shakhtar Donetsk: Match Prediction
The upcoming match pits together opponents who can confidently be called evenly matched. What is more, both clubs rely on foreign players and are fighting this season to win their domestic competitions. We believe this game will not deliver a high-scoring spectacle, because although both sides have decent attacking options, they also look excellent defensively and try above all not to concede.
The Polish side have conceded just twice in their last five UEFA Conference League matches. At the same time, Lech Poznan have not scored more than two goals in any of their last five games in this competition. Shakhtar Donetsk have played eight matches in this tournament and only managed to score more than two goals against Aberdeen. Meanwhile, in their last four UEFA Conference League fixtures, the Ukrainians have conceded just one goal.
Prediction: Under 2.5 goals
* For each team, the starting lineup is listed from its previous match.