The Matchday 1 clash of the 2025/26 Champions League group stage between Liverpool (England) and Atletico Madrid (Spain) will take place on September 17 at Anfield. Liverpool vs. Atletico Madrid: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Liverpool
The winners of the English Premier League for the 8th time in the last 8 years will compete in the Champions League. During this period, Liverpool won the tournament once (in 2019) and reached the finals twice (in 2018 and 2022). Last season, Arne Slot's side won the group stage with 7 wins and 1 loss. However, they failed to advance past the Round of 16, losing to the future Champions League winners PSG (1:0 and 0:1, extra time 0:0, penalties 1:4). Notably, the club is a primary favorite to win this tournament.
- The English side has won in regulation time in 8 of their last 10 matches in this European competition.
- Liverpool has not drawn in regulation time in their last 21 consecutive Champions League matches (15 wins and 6 losses).
- At least one team has failed to score in regulation time in 7 of Liverpool's last 9 games in this tournament.
Predicted lineup for Liverpool (3-4-3)
Alisson Becker – Milos Kerkez, Ibrahima Konate, Virgil van Dijk – Alexis Mac Allister, Dominik Szoboszlai, Cody Gakpo, Ryan Gravenberch – Mohamed Salah, Florian Wirtz, Hugo Ekitike.
Curtis Jones is doubtful for the match due to an injury.
Atletico Madrid
The Spanish club begins its 13th consecutive European season in the main stage of the Champions League. This time, Atletico entered the group stage from 3rd place in La Liga. During this period, the team reached the finals twice (in 2014 and 2016). Last season, Atletico finished 6th in the group stage standings with 6 wins and 2 losses. However, they did not advance past the Round of 16, losing to their city rivals Real Madrid (1:2 and 1:0, extra time 0:0, penalties 2:4).
- The team has won in regulation time in 6 of their last 7 matches in this European competition.
- Atletico's uncompromising series in regulation time in this tournament stands at 17 matches (12 wins and 5 losses).
- At least 3 goals have been scored in regulation time in 12 of Atletico's last 13 Champions League matches.
Predicted lineup for Atletico Madrid (3-4-3)
Jan Oblak – David Gantzko, Robin Le Normand, Clement Lenglet – Joao Cardoso, Pablo Barrios, Koke, Marcos Llorente – Giuliano Simeone, Antoine Griezmann, Alexander Sorloth.
Due to injuries, forward Julian Alvarez, defender Jose Maria Gimenez, and midfielders Alex Baena and Thiago Almada will not play.
Referee
Maurizio Mariani (Italy)
Matches – 14 (International matches, 2024/25–2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 47;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.4;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 22;
Penalties – 36%.
Liverpool vs. Atletico Madrid: Match Prediction
Both opponents are regular participants in the Champions League and consistently advance to the playoffs, preferring uncompromising results in this European competition. In the upcoming match, I favor the English side, who are strong at home in the Champions League and the Premier League. In their last 9 home matches in this tournament, Liverpool has won 7 times, losing only to PSG and Real Madrid.
Atletico does not often deliver positive results away from home. In their last 14 away matches in the Champions League, Atletico has only 4 wins (2 draws and 8 losses). Additionally, even in La Liga, Diego Simeone's side faces difficulties on the road, with only 1 win in their last 6 matches (2 draws and 3 losses).
It's also worth mentioning that in the 2021/22 season, these opponents played in the Champions League group stage, where Liverpool won both encounters – 3:2 and 2:0. Therefore, my prediction is a Liverpool victory.
