The Matchday 34 Bundesliga clash between Mainz and Bayer will take place on May 17 at the Mewa Arena. Mainz vs. Bayer: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Mainz
In the last round, Mainz ended a seven-match winless streak in the league (4 draws, 3 losses) with a victory over Bochum (4-1). However, Bo Henriksen's side has failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 10 Bundesliga matches. The three points helped Mainz climb to the last European competition spot, but they only lead their nearest rivals on goal difference. Additionally, Bo Henriksen's team boasts the third-best defense in the tournament, having conceded 41 goals.
- Both teams scored in 8 of Mainz's last 10 league matches.
- The club is unbeaten in their last 12 home Bundesliga matches, with 6 wins.
- No more than 2 goals were scored in 6 of the team's last 8 home games in this tournament.
Predicted lineup for Mainz (4-4-2)
Lasse Rieß – Anthony Caci, Philipp Mwene, Danny da Costa, Andreas Hanche-Olsen – Stefan Bell, Kaishu Sano, Paul Nebel, Lee Jae-sung – Nadim Amiri, Jonathan Burkardt.
Bayer
Leverkusen suffered a home defeat to Borussia Dortmund (2-4) in the last round, marking only their third loss in the current championship (19 wins, 11 draws). This was also the first time this season that the team conceded more than three goals. However, Xabi Alonso's side has scored at least two goals in three consecutive Bundesliga matches. Bayer has a total of 70 goals, the second-highest in the tournament.
- The club is unbeaten in 33 away league matches (23 wins, 10 draws).
- Leverkusen conceded in 12 of their last 16 away Bundesliga games.
- The team has defeated their upcoming opponents in 11 of their last 14 encounters in this tournament.
Predicted lineup for Bayer (4-5-1)
Lukáš Hrádecký – Jeremie Frimpong, Jonathan Tah, Alejandro Grimaldo, Edmond Tapsoba – Piero Hincapié, Granit Xhaka, Florian Wirtz, Nathan Tella, Robert Andrich – Amine Adli.
Defender Mario Hermoso is injured.
Referee
Tobias Reichel (Germany)
Matches – 12 (Bundesliga, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 48;
Average yellow cards per match – 4;
Red cards shown – 2;
Average fouls per match – 25;
Penalties – 42%.
Match Prediction: Mainz vs. Bayer
Leverkusen lost their farewell match for Xabi Alonso in front of the BayArena crowd. Even such motivation was not enough for the team to achieve a positive result. To some extent, the players' mindset is understandable: the title race is lost, many players will leave the club, and the head coach has found a new job. As a result, Leverkusen has won only one of their last five Bundesliga matches (3 draws, 1 loss).
To secure a spot in European competitions, Mainz must hold onto sixth place, and a win would guarantee that. Bo Henriksen's side has shown good results at home, going unbeaten in 12 league matches, though half of them ended in draws.
The hosts have more motivation in the final round, but Leverkusen has been a tough opponent for Mainz, so I suggest playing it safe with a zero handicap. My prediction: Mainz with a handicap (0)