The Matchday 3 clash in the 2025/26 UEFA Conference League group stage between Mainz (Germany) and Fiorentina (Italy) will take place on November 6 at the Mewa Arena. Mainz vs. Fiorentina: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Mainz
In the previous round, Bo Henriksen's side defeated Zrinjski at home (1-0). As a result, Mainz extended their winning streak in European competitions to three matches. Moreover, the team kept a clean sheet for the fourth time in their last six European matches. It is also worth noting that the club has scored in 13 of their last 14 European fixtures. The Germans are in 6th place in the group stage standings with six points.
- The team has not lost in their last seven home matches in European competitions (4 wins, 3 draws).
- The club has not conceded more than one goal in their last seven home games in European competitions.
- Mainz has scored exactly 1 or 2 goals in 6 of their last 7 home matches in European club tournaments.
Predicted lineup for Mainz (3-4-3)
Robin Zentner – Andreas Hanche-Olsen, Silvan Widmer, Kacper Potulski – Dominik Kohr, Kaishu Sano, Lennard Maloney, Sota Kawasaki – Ben Bobzien, Nelson Weiper, William Bøving.
Defenders Maxim Leitsch and Anthony Caci will miss the match due to injuries.
Fiorentina
In the first round, the Italians easily dispatched Rapid away (3-0). As a result, Fiorentina secured their fifth consecutive victory in the Conference League – the club's longest streak in this European competition over the past three seasons. Additionally, the team kept a clean sheet for only the third time in their last ten Conference League matches. The Florentines, along with Cypriot AEK, lead the group stage standings, with identical goals scored and conceded, and six points (5:0).
- The club has not lost in 12 of their last 15 away matches in the Conference League (6 wins, 6 draws).
- At least three goals have been scored in 7 of Fiorentina's last 8 away games in this European competition.
- The Italians have scored exactly 1 or 2 goals in 5 of their last 7 away matches in the Conference League.
Predicted lineup for Fiorentina (3-5-2)
David De Gea – Pablo Mari, Pietro Comuzzo, Mattia Viti – Fabiano Parisi, Cher Ndour, Hans Nicolussi Caviglia, Nicolo Fagioli, Niccolo Fortini – Roberto Piccoli, Edin Dzeko.
Defenders Robin Gosens and Tariq Lamptey, as well as forward Christian Kouamé, will miss the match due to injuries. Notably, the club dismissed head coach Stefano Pioli before this match, and Daniele Galloppa will serve as interim manager.
Referee
Lawrence Visser (Belgium)
Matches – 13 (International matches, 2024/25–2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 78;
Average yellow cards per match – 6;
Red cards shown – 6;
Average fouls per match – 25;
Penalties – 23%.
Match Prediction for Mainz vs. Fiorentina
At home, the Germans strive to play actively in attack, and even despite their lack of extensive experience in European competitions, Mainz regularly finds the net. In their last seven home matches in European competitions, the team has not left the field without scoring. However, the club cannot boast very high scoring, as in six of these matches, the Germans scored exactly 1 or 2 goals.
Fiorentina has mixed results on the road, but one aspect the team is not entirely satisfied with is their defensive play. In their last nine away matches in the Conference League, the Italians have kept a clean sheet only twice. However, the club has not suffered any complete defensive collapses, and in six matches with conceded goals during this period, the Florentines have not allowed opponents to score more than twice.
I think the hosts will definitely score, but not too much. My prediction: Exact number of goals for Mainz: 1-2
