The Matchday 23 clash in the Bundesliga between Mainz and St. Pauli will take place on February 22 at the Mewa Arena. Mainz vs. St. Pauli: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Mainz
Bo Henriksen's side secured a 2-0 away victory against Heidenheim in the last round. Mainz is in a decent run of form, having avoided defeat in 3 of their last 4 Bundesliga matches (2 wins, 1 draw). Notably, they have kept a clean sheet three times during this period, ranking third in the league for the total number of clean sheets this season. In the overall standings, Mainz is in sixth place.
- No more than two goals have been scored in 6 of Bo Henriksen's last 7 matches in this tournament.
- At home, the team has won 5 of their last 6 Bundesliga games (1 draw).
- In seven previous home matches in the league, the club has not conceded more than one goal.
Predicted lineup for Mainz (3-5-2)
Robin Zentner – Dominik Kohr, Moritz Jenz, Danny da Costa – Philipp Mwene, Nadiem Amiri, Kaishu Sano, Paul Nebel, Anthony Caci – Jonathan Burkardt, Nelson Weiper.
Defender Stefan Bell is sidelined with an injury.
St. Pauli
The Hamburg side, after a 3-match unbeaten run in the league (2 wins, 1 draw), suffered consecutive defeats against Leipzig (0-2) and Freiburg (0-1). St. Pauli has failed to score in two consecutive matches for the fourth time in the 2024/25 Bundesliga. Additionally, matches involving Alexander Blessin's side are the least productive in the tournament, averaging exactly 2 goals per game. In the overall standings, the club is in 14th place.
- At least one opponent failed to score in 8 of the last 9 matches involving the Hamburg side in the league.
- The team has a 11-match uncompromising streak away in the Bundesliga (4 wins, 7 losses).
- The number "2" has appeared in the final score in 6 of St. Pauli's last 8 away matches in this tournament.
Predicted lineup for St. Pauli (3-4-3)
Nikola Vasilj – Eric Smith, Hauke Wahl, David Nemeth – Philipp Treu, James Sands, Jackson Irvine, Siebe Van der Heyden – Noah Weißhaupt, Johannes Eggestein, Elias Saad.
Defender Manolis Saliakas and forward Morgan Guilavogui are injured. Midfielder James Sands is out for the rest of the season.
Referee
Felix Zwayer (Germany)
Matches – 10 (Bundesliga, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 45;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.5;
Red cards shown – 0;
Average fouls per match – 21;
Penalties – 50%.
Match Prediction: Mainz vs. St. Pauli
This encounter does not promise an abundance of goals, as it features the second and third strongest defenses in the league. One of the teams also struggles in attack. Although the first-round match saw three goals, repeating such productivity will be challenging for the clubs.
Bo Henriksen's side has not conceded more than one goal in seven home Bundesliga games, successfully containing the attacks of opponents like Stuttgart, Bayern, and Borussia Dortmund. St. Pauli has scored the fewest goals in the tournament, and in 8 of their last 10 league matches, the Hamburg side has not scored more than once.
Meanwhile, Alexander Blessin's side also performs well defensively. The team ranks fourth for clean sheets, and in the last eight Bundesliga matches, only Leipzig has managed to score more than once against St. Pauli.
My prediction: Total under 2.5 goals
