The Matchday 25 Bundesliga clash between Mainz 05 and Stuttgart will take place on 7 March at the Mewa Arena. Mainz 05 vs Stuttgart: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Mainz 05
In the previous round, Mainz 05 were close to beating Bayer Leverkusen, only to concede right at the death (1:1). Even so, a point away to one of the league leaders can be considered a very respectable result for the current situation facing the hosts under Urs Fischer. At the moment, the club sit 14th in the Bundesliga standings, just one point above the relegation zone. It is also worth highlighting how much the team have improved: in their last 11 matches, they have suffered only two defeats (four wins, five draws). That run has included some excellent results, such as a draw with Bayern Munich (2:2), a win over Leipzig (2:1), and the draw with Bayer Leverkusen last time out.
In 12 home matches in the 2025/26 season, the team have recorded three wins (four draws, five defeats).
Mainz 05 have scored in eight of their last nine league matches.
In five of their last six Bundesliga games, the team have conceded no more than one goal.
Potential Mainz 05 Lineup (3-5-2)*
Daniel Batz – Dominik Kohr, Stefan Bell, Stefan Posch – Silvan Widmer, Jae-sung Lee, Kaishu Sano, Nadiem Amiri, Danny da Costa – Philipp Tietz, Silas Katompa Mvumpa
Forwards Benedikt Hollerbach and Armindo Sito, as well as defenders Lennard Maloney, Stefan Bell, Maxim Dal and Antoni Caci, midfielder Sota Kawasaki and goalkeeper Robin Zentner will miss the match through injury.
Stuttgart
A convincing 4:0 win over Wolfsburg in the previous round was Stuttgart's 14th victory of the season and kept them in the Champions League places. The club currently sit fourth in the standings with 46 points. In addition, Stuttgart are producing some of their best results in recent seasons and have performed strongly both in the Europa League and in the Bundesliga and the German Cup. The club's attacking output also deserves mention: by this measure, they rank among the top four teams in the league, having scored 48 goals in 24 matches.
- Both teams to score has landed in six of the club's last eight away matches in this tournament.
The team have scored in every away Bundesliga match this season.
Stuttgart have avoided defeat in 10 of their last 11 league matches (seven wins, three draws).
Potential Stuttgart Lineup (4-3-3)*
Alexander Nubel – Julian Chabot, Finn Jeltsch, Maximilian Mittelstadt, Lorenz Assignon – Chema Andres, Atakan Karazor, Jamie Leweling – Chris Fuhrich, Deniz Undav, Ermedin Demirovic.
Defenders Luca-Jannis Kilian, Timo Hubers, Dan-Axel Zagadou and Luca Hakes will miss out through injury.
Referee
Matthias Jollenbeck (Germany)
Matches – 10 (Bundesliga, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 37;
Yellow cards per match – 3.7;
Red cards shown – 1;
Fouls per match – 22;
Penalties – 40%.
Mainz 05 vs Stuttgart: Match Prediction
Both teams will be highly motivated going into this one. Mainz 05 are fighting to preserve their Bundesliga status, and every point they pick up takes them closer to that goal. Last time out, the hosts lacked a little luck, but on home soil they play a very different brand of football. In fact, in their last five home matches, the team have not lost once (three wins, two draws). Most of the home side's defeats also came early in the season, and almost all of them were by a one-goal margin. The only exception was against Dortmund, when Urs Fischer's men lost 0:2.
With a busy schedule, Stuttgart have continued to deliver steady results across all competitions, which is backed up by the numbers. In their last 10 matches, the team have recorded seven wins (one draw, two defeats). One of those defeats came in the second leg against Celtic, but given how the first match was played, it was more of a tactical loss designed to conserve energy and focus on domestic competitions.
Even though Mainz 05 are inferior in quality, their performances—especially at home—should not be underestimated, but Stuttgart will have plenty of motivation as well. Sebastian Hoeness' side have scored in every away match this season, and the clash with Mainz 05 is unlikely to end that run. However, given that the hosts clearly will not simply hand over a win, it makes sense to consider the following outcome: Stuttgart to score and not lose.
Prediction: Stuttgart, double chance + Stuttgart to score
* For each team, the starting XI from their previous match in this tournament is listed.
