The first Champions League 2025/26 play-off match between Monaco (France) and Paris Saint-Germain (France) will take place on 17 February at the Louis II Stadium in Fontvieille. Monaco vs Paris Saint-Germain: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Monaco
Monaco only reached the top 24 of the league phase by a stroke of luck. The home team finished in 21st place thanks to a draw they earned in the final round against Juventus (0:0). At the same time, it is worth noting that in their last seven Champions League matches, the French side have suffered just one defeat — away to Real Madrid (1:6). This is their second consecutive appearance in the play-offs of this competition, but last season the club lost out to Benfica on aggregate. It should also be noted that Monaco have lost their previous five two-legged ties in European competition.
- The club have not won nine of their last 11 Champions League matches (five draws and four defeats).
- At home, Monaco are unbeaten in this tournament in four straight matches (one win and three draws).
- A maximum of one goal was scored in five of the last six Champions League home games for the hosts.
Potential Monaco Lineup (3-4-2-1)
Philipp Kohn – Denis Zakaria, Thilo Kehrer, Wout Faes – Lamine Camara, Aladji Bamba, Maghnes Akliouche, Krepin Diatta – Simon Adingra, Aleksandr Golovin – Folarin Balogun.
Goalkeeper Lukas Hradecky, midfielders Paul Pogba (left out of the squad) and Takumi Minamino, and defenders Mohammed Salisu and Eric Dier are out injured. Defender Christian Mawissa is also unlikely to play due to a knock.
Paris Saint-Germain
Paris Saint-Germain only have themselves to blame for failing to qualify directly for the round of 16. The visitors recorded four wins from their first five matches and decided that would be more than enough to finish in the top eight. However, that was followed by frustrating draws with Athletic Bilbao (0:0) and Newcastle United (1:1), as well as a surprise defeat to Sporting CP (1:2). As a result, the Parisians finished 11th, scoring as many as 21 goals in the process. Only three sides scored more in the league phase. It is also worth adding that Paris Saint-Germain have reached the play-offs for the 14th consecutive time. Moreover, last season they also had to play a play-off tie against a Ligue 1 opponent — and they swept aside Brest in both legs, winning 10:0 on aggregate.
- Paris Saint-Germain have avoided defeat in nine of their last 11 Champions League matches (seven wins and two draws).
- Both teams to score landed in six of the Parisians’ last seven games in this European competition.
- Three or more goals were scored in seven of the last 10 away matches for the French side in this tournament.
Potential Paris Saint-Germain Lineup (4-3-3)
Matvey Safonov – Achraf Hakimi, Marquinhos, Willian Pacho, Nuno Mendes – Warren Zaire-Emery, Vitinha, Joao Neves – Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Desire Doue, Ousmane Dembele.
Midfielder Fabian Ruiz is a doubt due to injury. Midfielder Quentin Ndjantu is also unavailable with a knock.
Referee
Jesus Gil Manzano (Spain)
Matches – 9 (international fixtures, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 33;
Yellow cards per match – 3.7;
Red cards shown – 4;
Fouls per match – 23;
Penalties – 44%.
Monaco vs Paris Saint-Germain: Match Prediction
Two-legged European ties between French clubs are a rare occurrence. The most recent one, however, shocked the Champions League — a year ago, the Parisians beat Brest (7:0 and 3:0). Monaco will now be approaching this French derby in the Champions League with caution. Nevertheless, despite the convincing gap in Ligue 1 points between the two sides (20), we will not take a straight away win.
Paris Saint-Germain have become noticeably worse defensively and have been conceding far more. The departure of first-choice goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma in the summer has played its part. The visitors have conceded in six of their previous seven Champions League matches. In addition, the Parisians have failed to keep a clean sheet in nine of their last 11 official games.
We expect both teams to score in this match. After all, the hosts have found the net in 14 of their last 17 official home matches. Furthermore, both clubs scored in five of the last seven head-to-head meetings in Ligue 1.
Prediction: Both teams to score – Yes
