The first leg of the 2025/26 UEFA Conference League round-of-16 tie between Celje (Slovenia) and AEK Athens (Greece) will take place on 12 March at the Zdezhele Stadium. Celje vs AEK Athens: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Celje
Celje failed to stay in the top eight in the league phase of the Conference League, so they had to spend energy on the knockout round play-offs. The team claimed two wins over Drita, but neither game was straightforward — Celje beat their opponents twice in entertaining shoot-outs by the same 3:2 scoreline. The club's unbeaten run in the Conference League has reached three matches, and overall, since the start of the season, the Slovenians have suffered only three defeats across their last 12 games in this tournament. It is also worth noting that, due to regular defensive errors, the team have kept just one clean sheet in their last six European matches.
- Celje have scored in 17 of their previous 19 Conference League matches.
- The club's unbeaten home run in this European competition stands at five matches (four wins, one draw).
- Five of the Slovenians' last six games in the Conference League have gone over the total.
Potential Celje Lineup (3-5-2)*
Jean-Luc Leban – Juanjo Nieto, Lukas Bejger, Damjan Vuklisevic – Darko Hrka, Mario Kvesic, Svit Seslar, Ivan Calusic, Rudi Vancas – Nikita Iosifov, Armandas Kucys.
AEK Athens
Based on the results of the league phase, AEK Athens finished in the top three. Over six matchdays, they collected 13 points in total — the same tally as four other clubs, but the Greeks came out ahead of all their rivals on tiebreakers. AEK Athens have suffered only one defeat in the current European season, and that came back in October, in the opening-round match. However, it is important to point out that the opponents then were Celje. The team have already visited Slovenia and lost 3:1. Nevertheless, it is the club's only defeat across their last 13 Conference League matches. The Greeks' current unbeaten run in the tournament stands at five matches, with four of those ending in victory.
- AEK Athens scored 14 goals in the league phase — the best figure in the Conference League.
- The team's scoring run in this European competition has reached 10 games.
- At least two goals have been scored in nine of the Greeks' last 10 Conference League matches.
Potential AEK Athens Lineup (4-4-1-1)*
Thomas Strakosha – Domagoj Vida, Lazaros Rota, Stavros Pilios, Filipe Relvas – Petros Mantalos, Roberto Pereyra, Orbelin Pineda, Razvan Marin – Aboubakary Koita – Luka Jovic.
Referee
Luis Godinho (Portugal)
Matches – 8 (International fixtures, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 29;
Yellow cards per match – 3.6;
Red cards shown – 0;
Fouls per match – 19;
Penalties – 13%.
Celje vs AEK Athens: Match Prediction
A key strength of both teams is their attacking play. Over the course of this season, Celje have failed to score in only two of their previous 12 Conference League matches. More broadly, the Slovenians have found at least one chance to score in 17 of their last 19 games in this tournament. At the same time, the club make plenty of mistakes at the back, which is why, across their last six Conference League matches, Celje have managed a clean sheet only once.
AEK Athens, meanwhile, were the most prolific club in the Conference League league phase. Overall, the Greeks have been scoring consistently across a 10-match European run. However, we do not see the same level of reliability in defensive actions. In the league phase, the team conceded an average of 1.17 goals per 90 minutes. If we also take qualifying into account, both teams scored in seven of AEK Athens' previous 10 games in this tournament. The same happened in the autumn head-to-head meeting, which took place in the opening round of the Conference League.
Prediction: Both teams to score – Yes
* For each team, the starting XI listed is from their most recent match in this tournament.