The first leg of the 2025/26 Champions League round of 16 tie between Paris Saint-Germain (France) and Chelsea (England) will take place on 11 March at the Parc des Princes in Paris. Paris Saint-Germain vs Chelsea: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Paris Saint-Germain
For the 14th season in a row, the French side have reached the Champions League round of 16. In this campaign, the team had a great chance to qualify for this stage directly, but they failed to win their last three matches of the league phase, finishing 11th and heading into the play-offs, where they faced Monaco. The Parisians got past the Monegasques, albeit not without difficulty, and progressed thanks to a 3:2 away win. At home, the club had to settle for a draw (2:2). Interestingly, a season earlier Paris Saint-Germain also played in the play-offs and again faced another Ligue 1 representative (Brest), and then Luis Enrique's men went on to win the Champions League for the first time in their history.
- The Parisians have failed to win five of their previous seven matches in this European competition (three draws and two defeats).
- Both teams scored in eight of Paris Saint-Germain’s last nine matches in this tournament.
- At least three goals have been scored in 10 of the French side’s previous 12 Champions League games.
Potential Paris Saint-Germain Lineup (4-3-3)
Matvey Safonov – Achraf Hakimi, Ilya Zabarnyi, Willian Pacho, Nuno Mendes – Warren Zaire-Emery, Vitinha, Dro Fernandes – Senny Mayulu, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Ousmane Dembele.
Due to injuries, midfielders Quentin Ndjantu and Fabian Ruiz will not be able to play.
Chelsea
The Londoners finished sixth in the league phase, which allowed them to avoid additional play-off ties and go straight into the round of 16. They secured a top-eight finish thanks to wins over Pafos (1:0) and Napoli (3:2) in the final two matchdays. It is also worth noting that the English side are playing in this tournament for the 18th time this century, and on every occasion they have reached the spring stage of European competition, while in their last three attempts they have made it at least to the quarter-finals. In addition, Chelsea have won 13 of their previous 16 two-legged European ties.
- The English side have avoided defeat in six of their last seven matches in this tournament (five wins and one draw).
- Three or more goals have been scored in five of Chelsea’s previous six Champions League matches.
- Both teams scored in the Londoners’ last four away matches in this European competition.
Potential Chelsea Lineup (4-2-3-1)
Robert Sanchez – Mamadou Sarr, Trevoh Chalobah, Marc Cucurella, Reece James – Andrey Santos, Moises Caicedo – Cole Palmer, Enzo Fernandez, Pedro Neto – Joao Pedro.
Defender Levi Colwill, forward Estevao, as well as midfielders Jamie Gittens and Dario Essugo will miss the game due to injuries.
Referee
Alejandro Hernandez Hernandez (Spain)
Matches – 6 (International matches, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second cautions) – 13;
Average yellow cards per match – 2.2;
Red cards shown – 0;
Fouls per match on average – 22;
Penalties – 33%.
Paris Saint-Germain vs Chelsea: Match Prediction
The home side are currently tracking in line with last season’s trajectory. A year ago, just like in this campaign, Paris Saint-Germain came through a play-off tie against a Ligue 1 opponent, and in the round of 16 they will play the first leg against a Premier League representative. By the way, in last season’s Champions League knockout stage, Paris Saint-Germain faced three English opponents and ultimately got past all of them. At the same time, we will not risk backing either side to win, and instead will propose a high-scoring option, especially as both clubs have posted decent attacking numbers in this season’s Champions League: the Parisians score an average of 2.6 goals, while the Londoners average 2.1.
We believe there will be at least three goals in this match. That total has been recorded in 10 of Paris Saint-Germain’s previous 12 games in this tournament, and also in five of Chelsea’s last six matches in this European competition. It is also worth adding that the home team have scored at least two goals in five of their previous seven home Champions League matches, while the visitors have conceded two or three goals in each of their last five away games in this tournament. In addition, exactly three goals were scored in the previous three head-to-head meetings between these opponents.
Prediction: Over 3 goals
