The first leg of the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League Round of 16 between Real Madrid (Spain) and Atletico Madrid (Spain) will take place on March 4 at the Santiago Bernabeu Stadium. Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Real Madrid
The team comfortably advanced past Manchester City in the playoff matches, defeating the English side in both legs (3-2 and 3-1). This extended Madrid's winning streak in the Champions League to five matches. Notably, Carlo Ancelotti's side has scored at least three goals in all these games. Interestingly, this marks Real's 29th consecutive appearance in the Round of 16 of this tournament. Additionally, in the last four seasons, the club has won the Champions League twice and reached the semifinals twice.
- Both teams scored in 6 of the last 8 Champions League matches involving Madrid.
- At least four goals were scored in 6 of Real's last 8 Champions League encounters.
- Two or more goals were scored in the second half in the club's last six matches in this tournament.
Predicted lineup for Real Madrid (4-3-3)
Thibaut Courtois – Ferland Mendy, Antonio Rüdiger, Raúl Asensio, David Alaba – Eduardo Camavinga, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Brahim Diaz – Vinicius Junior, Rodrygo Goes, Kylian Mbappé.
Defenders Jesús Vallejo, Éder Militão, and Dani Carvajal, as well as midfielder Dani Ceballos, are sidelined due to injuries. Midfielder Jude Bellingham will miss the match due to suspension. Federico Valverde's participation is in doubt.
Atletico Madrid
Diego Simeone's men finished fifth in the overall group stage of the Champions League, securing 6 wins and suffering 2 losses. By reaching the top eight, the club avoided the playoff matches and directly advanced to the Round of 16. Notably, this is the sixth time in the last seven seasons that Atletico has reached this stage of the tournament. It's worth mentioning that in the previous Champions League campaign, the team was eliminated in the quarterfinals, losing to Borussia Dortmund over two legs.
- Both teams scored in regular time in 9 of Atletico's last 11 Champions League matches.
- At least three goals were scored in 11 of Atletico's last matches in this tournament.
- In 6 of the club's last 7 encounters in this European competition, at least two goals were scored in the second half.
Predicted lineup for Atletico Madrid (4-4-2)
Jan Oblak – Nahuel Molina, Clément Lenglet, José María Giménez, Robin Le Normand – Marcos Llorente, Rodrigo De Paul, Giuliano Simeone, Samuel Lino – Antoine Griezmann, Julian Alvarez.
Defender César Azpilicueta and midfielder Koke will miss the match due to injuries.
Referee
Clement Turpin (France)
Matches – 11 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 31;
Average yellow cards per match – 2.8;
Red cards shown – 0;
Average fouls per match – 22;
Penalties – 55%.
Match Prediction: Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid
Diego Simeone's side is considered the underdog in this matchup. However, I believe they have a good chance of overcoming their city rivals or at least not losing the first leg. Atletico, like their opponent, boasts a five-match winning streak in the Champions League. Furthermore, these teams are closely ranked in the La Liga standings, with Atletico displaying a stronger defensive game, which I think will enable the visitors to contain the hosts' attacking potential in the upcoming match.
Interestingly, Real has been unable to defeat their city rivals in regular time for eight consecutive official matches (seven of these encounters ended in draws). Therefore, I believe taking a handicap on the visitors is prudent. Atletico has not lost to Real with a handicap (+1) in their last 10 head-to-head encounters in La Liga, the Copa del Rey, and the Spanish Super Cup. Additionally, it's worth noting that in this century, the Madrid clubs have faced each other six times in the Champions League, with Real only managing to defeat their city rivals by a margin of two or more goals once in regular time.
My prediction: Atletico Madrid with a handicap (+1)
