The Matchday 1 encounter of the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League group stage between Real Madrid (Spain) and Marseille (France) will take place on September 16 at the Santiago Bernabeu Stadium. Real Madrid vs. Marseille: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Real Madrid
The Madrid side has not missed the main stage of the Champions League this century. They are participating in this edition as the runners-up of the Spanish La Liga. Notably, in the last three years, the club has won the tournament twice. In the previous edition, Real Madrid finished only 11th in the group stage (5 wins and 3 losses). They then overcame Manchester City and local rivals Atletico but were stopped by Arsenal in the quarter-finals (1-2 and 0-3). The club is among the top five favorites for the tournament, currently ranked 3rd.
- The team has a relentless streak of 16 matches in regular time in this tournament (10 wins and 6 losses).
- At least three goals were scored in 8 of Real Madrid's last 9 Champions League games after 90 minutes.
- Two or more goals have been scored in the second half in 8 of the last 10 matches involving the Spaniards in this European competition.
Predicted lineup for Real Madrid (4-4-2)
Thibaut Courtois – Alvaro Carreras, Dean Heysen, Eder Militao, Trent Alexander-Arnold – Federico Valverde, Aurelien Tchouameni, Arda Güler, Franco Mastantuono – Kylian Mbappe, Vinicius Junior.
Forward Endrick Felipe, defenders Antonio Rudiger and Ferland Mendy will miss the game due to injuries.
Marseille
Roberto De Zerbi's side qualified for the main stage of the Champions League from 2nd place in Ligue 1. In the last five years, the club has entered this European competition four times, but only played in the group stage twice, failing to progress further. Last year, the French did not participate in European competitions. However, the season before, starting from the 3rd qualifying round of the Champions League, they only reached the autumn stage of the Europa League, eventually making it to the semi-finals. An interesting fact – Marseille has a 26-match uncompromising streak in the Champions League (6 wins and 20 losses).
- Exactly two or three goals were scored in regular time in 10 of Marseille's last 13 matches in this European competition.
- The French side has lost in regular time in 11 of their last 12 away matches in the Champions League.
- The team has conceded at least two goals in regular time in 10 of their last 13 away games in this tournament.
Predicted lineup for Marseille (3-4-3)
Geronimo Rulli – Benjamin Pavard, Leonardo Balerdi, Facundo Medina – Amir Murillo, Timothy Weah, Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg, Geoffrey Kondogbia – Mason Greenwood, Angel Gomes, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang.
Defender Nayef Aguerd and midfielder Ahmed Traore will miss the match due to injuries.
Referee
Irfan Peljto (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
Matches – 18 (International matches, 2024/25–2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 65;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.6;
Red cards shown – 5;
Average fouls per match – 21;
Penalties – 50%.
Match Prediction for Real Madrid vs. Marseille
The Champions League is awaited in Madrid with as much anticipation as the Spanish El Clasico. Last season, Real Madrid was content with only the quarter-final stage, which is considered almost a failure for them. Carlo Ancelotti will not let this fact be disputed. Now, the Madrid side is ready to compete for the title of the best in Europe with Xabi Alonso.
With a new coach, Real Madrid has only won in the new season – 4 victories in La Liga. Additionally, the Spanish club is very strong at home, having won 15 of their last 20 home matches in the Champions League in regular time. Meanwhile, the French cannot boast of consistent participation in this European competition, and their performances in the Champions League are mostly disappointing. This is especially true for away games, where Marseille has lost 11 of their last 12 matches.
I believe the hosts will secure a confident victory. Marseille consistently concedes a lot on the road in the Champions League and often fails to score, as was the case in 6 of their last 8 matches. Considering the attacking potential of the Madrid side, it is worth paying attention to the handicap for the Spaniards.
My prediction – Real Madrid with a handicap (-1.5)