The first leg of the 2025/26 Conference League qualifying playoff between Rosenborg (Norway) and Mainz (Germany) will take place on August 21 at the Lerkendal Stadium in Trondheim. Rosenborg vs. Mainz: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Rosenborg
The Norwegians have already progressed through two stages in this Conference League. In the first round, Alfred Johansson's team easily defeated Banga (5-0, 2-0), but the encounter with Hammarby was more challenging (0-0, 1-0). Notably, Rosenborg has kept four consecutive clean sheets, although they had conceded in nine previous matches in this tournament. The club is participating in the Conference League for the third time, yet the Scandinavians have never reached the group stage.
- Rosenborg has not lost in 7 of their last 8 Conference League games (4 wins, 3 draws).
- At home, the team has not conceded more than one goal in 6 of their last 7 matches in this tournament.
- The club opened the scoring in 5 of their last 7 home games in the Conference League.
Predicted lineup for Rosenborg (4-3-3)
Sander Tangvik – Mikkel Konradsen Seide, Adrian Pereira, Aslak Fonn Witry, Tomas Nemecik – Ole Christian Selnæs, Santeri Väänänen, Simen Nordli – Ole Sæter, Dino Islamovic, Jesper Reitan.
Mainz
The team finished 6th in the last Bundesliga season, earning the right to participate in the Conference League. Mainz is not a frequent participant in European competitions. The last time the Germans appeared on the international stage was in the 2016/17 season. In the Europa League group stage, the club lost only once but ended up in third place. In their two earlier Europa League campaigns, Mainz was eliminated in the first round.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Mainz's last 7 Europa League games.
- The team has not lost in 5 of their last 6 matches in this tournament (2 wins, 3 draws).
- In 4 of their last 5 away Europa League games, the club did not score more than one goal.
Predicted lineup for Mainz (4-4-2)
Robin Zentner – Anthony Caci, Philipp Mwene, Danny da Costa, Dominik Kohr – Maxim Leitsch, Kaishu Sano, Paul Nebel, Lee Jae-sung – Nadiem Amiri, Benedikt Hollerbach.
Referee
Alexey Derevinsky (Ukraine)
Matches – 6 (International matches, 2024/25 - 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 27;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.5;
Red cards shown – 2;
Average fouls per match – 20;
Penalties – 17%.
Rosenborg vs. Mainz: Match Prediction
Bookmakers have made Bo Henriksen's team the favorites in this match. Undoubtedly, the Bundesliga is stronger than the Norwegian league, but Mainz has not been on the international stage since 2016. Meanwhile, Rosenborg does not lack European experience. Moreover, the Scandinavians have shown good results in the Conference League, and at home in this tournament, the club has not lost in 6 of 7 matches (4 wins, 2 draws).
Mainz matched their best Bundesliga finish last season, but they faltered towards the end. The Germans managed only one win in their last 9 league matches (5 draws, 3 losses), and that victory came against relegated Bochum. It's also important to note that their top scorer Jonathan Burkardt left the team in the off-season, which could make it challenging to break down Rosenborg's defense, which has not conceded in this Conference League.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Norwegians avoid defeat. However, I suggest playing it safe with a positive handicap. My prediction: Rosenborg with a handicap (+1)
