The Matchday 34 clash in Ligue 1 between Saint-Etienne and Toulouse will take place on May 17 at the Geoffroy-Guichard Stadium. Saint-Etienne vs. Toulouse: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Saint-Etienne
After suffering two consecutive 1-3 defeats in Ligue 1, the club secured a 2-0 victory against Reims in the last round. This win reduced their gap to the playoff zone to just one point, and they are now two points behind the safe 15th place, while remaining in 17th position. Therefore, only a win in the upcoming match will keep their survival hopes alive. Notably, the match against Reims marked only the fifth time this season that Saint-Etienne managed to keep a clean sheet. Their defense remains a weak link, having conceded 74 goals, with only relegated Montpellier conceding more (76).
- The team has failed to win in 14 of their last 17 Ligue 1 matches (5 draws, 9 losses).
- Both teams scored in 9 of Saint-Etienne's last 12 matches in this tournament.
- At least 4 goals have been scored in 5 of their last 6 home matches in the league.
Predicted lineup for Saint-Etienne (4-3-3)
Gauthier Larsonneur – Leo Petrot, Mickael Nade, Maxime Bernauer, Dennis Appiah – Pierre-Emmanuel Ekwah, Aimen Moueffek, Florian Tardieu – Zuriko Davitashvili, Ibrahima Wadji, Irvin Cardona.
Toulouse
The team extended their unbeaten run in the French Championship to three matches (1 win, 2 draws) after drawing 1-1 with Lens in the previous round. Toulouse has already secured their place in Ligue 1, currently sitting in 12th place with a six-point cushion above the relegation playoff zone. The team's goal difference in the current season stands at 41:41. Additionally, Toulouse is winless in their last four away matches in Ligue 1 (1 draw, 3 losses), failing to score in the last two.
- Both teams scored in 7 of Toulouse's last 9 matches in the championship.
- Toulouse has failed to win in 8 of their last 9 league matches (3 draws, 5 losses).
- At least 3 goals have been scored in 5 of their last 7 away matches in the top French league.
Predicted lineup for Toulouse (3-4-3)
Guillaume Restes – Jaidi Kanvo, Mark McKenzie, Djibril Sidibe – Warren Kamanzi, Vincent Sierro, Cristian Casseres, Aron Donnum – Joshua King, Yann Gboho, Franck Magri.
Head coach Carles Martinez will be absent from the bench due to suspension.
Referee
Thomas Leonard (France)
Matches – 19 (Ligue 1, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 66;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.5;
Red cards shown – 2;
Average fouls per match – 25;
Penalties – 21%.
Saint-Etienne vs. Toulouse: Match Prediction
The hosts continue to fight for survival until the last match of the championship. Their victory in the previous round, coupled with competitors dropping points, kept their theoretical chances of survival alive. However, not everything depends on Saint-Etienne; besides their own successful performance, they must hope for slip-ups from Le Havre and Nantes in parallel matches. A draw is unlikely to allow the hosts to even hope for the playoffs, as they trail Le Havre significantly in goal difference this season.
Therefore, Eirik Horneland's side has no choice but to play for victory in the upcoming match. It's evident that Saint-Etienne won't sit back defensively. They have played open football throughout the current Ligue 1 season, resulting in some of the highest-scoring matches in the tournament, averaging 3.4 goals per game. Only PSG (3.7) and Marseille (3.5) have higher averages. Meanwhile, the visitors are unlikely to play defensively, as they are not under pressure to secure a result. Toulouse has already achieved their primary goal of staying in the top flight, and it's highly unlikely they will drop below their current 12th place.
I expect the match to be high-scoring, as the statistics suggest. At least 3 goals have been scored in Saint-Etienne's last 6 home matches in Ligue 1, and at least 3 goals have been scored in 5 of Toulouse's last 7 away matches in this tournament. Additionally, the over 2.5 goals total has been reached in 3 of the last 4 head-to-head meetings in the championship. Therefore, my prediction is Total over 2.5 goals.