The Matchday 22 clash in the Bundesliga between St. Pauli and Freiburg will take place on February 15 at the Millerntor Stadium in Hamburg. St. Pauli vs. Freiburg: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
St. Pauli
After a 0-2 away defeat to Leipzig in the last round, the Hamburg side ended a three-match unbeaten run in the league (2 wins, 1 draw). Under Alexander Blessin's guidance, the team failed to score for the 11th time in the 2024/25 Bundesliga season. St. Pauli has scored just 18 goals, the worst tally in the tournament, and currently sits in 14th place in the overall standings.
- At least one opponent failed to score in 7 of St. Pauli's last 8 league matches.
- The team has not won in 8 of their last 10 home Bundesliga matches (3 draws, 5 losses).
- St. Pauli failed to score in 7 of their last 10 home games in this tournament.
Predicted lineup for St. Pauli (3-4-3)
Nikola Vasilj – Eric Smith, Hauke Wahl, David Nemeth – Philipp Treu, James Sands, Jackson Irvine, Siebe Van der Heyden – Noah Weißhaupt, Johannes Eggestein, Carlo Boukhalfa.
Defenders Manolis Saliakas and forward Morgan Guilavogui are sidelined due to injuries.
Freiburg
Julian Schuster's men secured 1-0 victories against Bochum and Heidenheim in the last two rounds. The team bounced back after three consecutive Bundesliga defeats, and with six points gained, Freiburg climbed into the European competition zone in the standings. However, among the top-6 clubs, Freiburg has the lowest goal tally with 28 goals.
- At least three goals were scored in 6 of Freiburg's last 8 league matches.
- The team has not won in 7 of their last 8 away games in this tournament (2 draws, 5 losses).
- The number "1" appeared in the final score in 5 of Freiburg's last 7 Bundesliga matches.
Predicted lineup for Freiburg (4-5-1)
Noah Atubolu – Philipp Lienhart, Christian Günter, Matthias Ginter, Kiliann Sildillia – Eren Dinkci, Maximilian Eggestein, Nicolas Höfler, Ritsu Doan, Vincenzo Grifo – Lucas Höler.
Referee
Benjamin Brand (Germany)
Matches – 10 (Bundesliga, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 33;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.3;
Red cards shown – 2;
Average fouls per match – 20;
Penalties – 10%.
St. Pauli vs. Freiburg: Match Prediction
In the last round, Hamburg conceded more than one goal for the first time in seven league matches. St. Pauli focuses on defense, which gives Alexander Blessin's side the second-best defensive record after Bayern. However, the team struggles in attack, further exacerbated by the injury to top scorer Morgan Guilavogui, who has scored 5 of the team's 18 goals in the 2024/25 Bundesliga season. In the last round, without the Guinean in the lineup, Hamburg managed an xG of just 0.72 against Leipzig, who have defensive issues.
Freiburg managed to "dry up" the neighbors of St. Pauli in the standings in the last two rounds. However, Julian Schuster's side only scored once against the underdogs. It's hard to expect a goal fest from a team with the lowest scoring record among the top half of the table. Away from home, the club hasn't scored more than once in 9 Bundesliga matches.
My prediction: Total under 2.5 goals
