The 19th-round match of the Bundesliga between St. Pauli and Hamburger SV will take place on 23 january at Millerntor Stadium in Hamburg. St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
St. Pauli
St. Pauli lost 2:3 away to Borussia Dortmund in the last round. This defeat was the team's 11th in its last 14 Bundesliga matches (1 win, 2 draws). At the same time, the team scored in 5 of its previous 6 league meetings. The club has the fewest goals scored in the current Bundesliga campaign (16). In the league table the team sit last with 12 points.
- The club failed to win in 9 of its last 11 home Bundesliga matches (3 draws, 6 losses).
- The team scored no more than one goal in 12 of its previous 15 home league matches.
- St. Pauli conceded in each of its last 11 home Bundesliga matches.
Potential St. Pauli Lineup (3-5-2)*
Nikola Vasil – Adam Dzwigala, Karol Mets, Hauke Wahl – Arkadiusz Pyrka, Eric Smith, James Sands, Joel Chima Fujita, Lars Ritzka – Matias Pereira Lage, Martein Kars.
Defender David Nemeth and forward Andrea Untondji are injured.
Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV drew 0:0 at home with Borussia Mönchengladbach in the last round. This extended the team's winless run in the league to four matches (2 draws, 2 losses). In addition, for the first time in seven previous Bundesliga matches the team failed to score. At the same time, the run of matches with conceded goals, which stood at 10 games, was ended. In the league table the team occupy 14th place with 17 points.
- The club failed to win in nine of its last away Bundesliga matches (2 draws, 7 losses).
- Both sides scored in 7 of the team's previous 9 league matches.
- Hamburger SV did not score more than one goal in nine of its last away Bundesliga matches.
Potential Hamburger SV Lineup (3-4-3)*
Daniel Heuer – Jordan Torunarigha, Nicolas Capaldo, Luka Vuskovic – Bakery Jatta, Nicolai Remberg, Jean-Luc Dompé, Miro Muheim – Fabio Vieira, Damion Downs, Ransford Konigsdorffer.
Defender Varmed Omari and forward Yussuf Poulsen will miss the match due to injuries.
Referee
Tobias Welz (Germany)
Matches – 6 (the Bundesliga, 2025/26);
Yellow/Red Cards (including second yellow) – 32;
Average yellow/red cards per match – 5.3;
Red Cards – 1;
Fouls Per Match – 26;
Penalties – 17%.
St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV: Match Prediction
We expect the Hamburg derby to feature more fighting than clear scoring chances. The scoring statistics of the opponents point to this. Even at home St. Pauli do not score very often: in their last 15 Bundesliga home matches the team managed to score more than one goal only three times. Moreover, in seven games during that stretch the players left the field without scoring at all.
Hamburger SV also cannot boast high attacking efficiency, and scores very little on the road. In particular, in eight away matches this season the team has registered just four goals, and in none of those games did it score more than once. In addition, the team are among the three lowest-scoring sides in the current Bundesliga season.
Prediction: Under 2.5 goals
* The starting lineup shown for each team is from its previous match in this competition.