The match of Matchday 8 of the group stage of the 2025/26 Champions League between Benfica (Portugal) and Real Madrid (Spain) will take place on 28 January at Estádio da Luz. Benfica vs Real Madrid: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Benfica
Benfica had a poor start to the group stage of the Champions League but then the home team picked up two consecutive wins; however the run was not extended. In the last round Benfica lost 0:2 away to Juventus. The defeat in Turin was the club's fifth loss in seven recent European matches. As a result, having collected only 6 points, the club sits 29th in the standings. Benfica still have a chance to reach the playoffs, but to do so the home team must beat Real Madrid in the decisive match — and even with a win they will need to monitor the results of rivals. It is worth noting that the club has won only 3 of its previous 25 matches against Spanish sides in European competition (8 draws, 14 defeats).
- At least one team failed to score in six of Benfica's previous Champions League matches.
- The club's uncompromising run in this competition lasts 8 matches (3 wins, 5 defeats).
- Benfica scored in 6 of their last 8 home Champions League matches.
Potential Benfica Lineup (4-5-1)
Anatoliy Trubin – Amar Dedic, Tomás Araújo, Nicolas Otamendi, Samuel Dala – Gianluca Prestiani, Heorhiy Sudakov, Leandro Barreiro, Fredrik Aursnes, Andreas Skjelderup – Evangelos Pavlidis.
Defender Alexander Bah, midfielder Richard Rios, and forward Dodi Lukebakio are unavailable due to injuries.
Real Madrid
Real Madrid took maximum points in the first three rounds of the Champions League, then the team began to alternate wins and defeats. After the December loss to Manchester City by 1:2, a few days ago Real Madrid emphatically dispatched Monaco 6:1. Thus the visitors for the second time this European season defeated an opponent by a five-goal margin; earlier the club beat Kairat 5:0. Before the final group-stage round Real Madrid rose to third place in the standings and have secured a place in the playoffs. A victory over Benfica will deliver direct qualification to the round of 16. Because Real Madrid have one of the best goal difference figures (+11), there is a chance that even a draw will be enough to keep a top-8 position.
- Real Madrid are unbeaten in 10 European matches against Portuguese clubs (8 wins, 2 draws).
- Real Madrid's uncompromising run in the Champions League lasts 23 matches (15 wins, 8 defeats).
- The visitors have conceded in 4 consecutive Champions League matches.
Potential Real Madrid Lineup (4-3-3)
Thibaut Courtois – Raul Asensio, Din Heisen, Federico Valverde, Alvaro Carreras – Arda Guler, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Jude Bellingham – Vinicius Junior, Franco Mastantuono, Kylian Mbappe.
First-choice defender Alvaro Carreras has served a suspension. Defenders Trent Alexander-Arnold, Antonio Rüdiger, Ferland Mendy and Eder Militao will miss the game due to injuries.
Referee
Davide Massa (Italy)
Matches – 9 (International matches, 2025/26);
Yellow Cards Shown (counting second yellows) – 29;
Average Yellow Cards Per Match – 3.2;
Red Cards Shown – 2;
Fouls Average Per Match – 24;
Penalties – 22%.
Benfica vs Real Madrid: Match Prediction
Benfica are close to elimination from the Champions League. At one point the club rallied and ended a run of four defeats in this competition, but after two consecutive wins the home team lost an important match against Juventus 0:2. Thus the club has lost 5 of its last 7 group-stage matches, which leaves Benfica in the lower part of the table. It is also worth noting a modest level of spectacle, which is quite typical for the team led by Jose Mourinho's tactics. In 5 of Benfica's last 6 Champions League games no more than 2 goals were scored.
Real Madrid have strong chances of direct qualification to the round of 16. Recently, despite pressure and a recent coaching change, the visitors moved into the top three of the group thanks to their fifth win in seven rounds. In the last match against Monaco seven goals were scored, but such high scoring is not a frequent occurrence. In 8 of Real Madrid's last 11 Champions League matches we saw no more than 3 goals.
From all the above details the following prediction follows:
Prediction: Real Madrid Win And Under 3.5 Goals
