The second leg of the 2025/26 Champions League round-of-16 tie between Chelsea (England) and Paris Saint-Germain (France) will take place on 17 March at the Stamford Bridge stadium in London. The score in the first leg was 5:2 in favour of Paris Saint-Germain. Chelsea vs Paris Saint-Germain: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Chelsea
The home side lost the first meeting by a heavy 5:2 scoreline. Although up until the 74th minute the team matched their opponents, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia then came on and produced 2 goals and 1 assist to seal a convincing win for his club. Now the English club must win by a four-goal margin to progress to the next round, or by three to take the tie into extra time. Interestingly, Chelsea have won in each of their last three appearances at the Champions League round-of-16 stage, as well as 13 of their previous 16 two-legged ties on the continental stage. It is also worth noting that the last time the Londoners lost a first away leg in European competition by a three-goal margin was in the 1994/95 Cup Winners’ Cup semi-finals.
- The team have avoided defeat in 6 of their previous 8 matches in this tournament (5 wins and 1 draw).
- Three or more goals have been scored in 6 of Chelsea’s last 7 Champions League games.
- On home soil, the English side are on a four-game winning run in this tournament.
Potential Chelsea Lineup (4-2-3-1)
Robert Sanchez – Malo Gusto, Wesley Fofana, Trevoh Chalobah, Marc Cucurella – Reece James, Moises Caicedo – Cole Palmer, Enzo Fernandez, Pedro Neto – Joao Pedro.
Defender Levi Colwill and forward Estevao will miss the match through injury.
Paris Saint-Germain
Curiously, the Parisians barely created enough for one goal in the first leg. In the home match the team’s xG figure was just 0.90, while their opponents’ was higher at 1.56. The French side secured a comfortable win thanks to their clinical finishing. Now, to reach the quarter-finals, the club can even lose by a two-goal margin, but no more. Note that Paris Saint-Germain have previously progressed in European two-legged ties when winning the first home leg by three goals. It is also interesting that the Parisians have lost only 1 of their last 9 matches against English opposition (6 wins and 2 draws), and have also won each of their last three two-legged ties against English clubs.
- The French side have avoided defeat in 12 of their previous 14 matches in this tournament in normal time (9 wins and 3 draws).
- Both teams have scored in Paris Saint-Germain’s last five Champions League matches.
- Three or more goals have been scored in 11 of the Parisians’ last 13 matches in this European competition.
Potential Paris Saint-Germain Lineup (4-3-3)
Matvey Safonov – Achraf Hakimi, Ilya Zabarnyi, Willian Pacho, Nuno Mendes – Warren Zaire-Emery, Vitinha, Joao Neves – Senny Mayulu, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Ousmane Dembele.
Midfielders Quentin Ndzantu and Fabian Ruiz will be unavailable due to injuries.
Referee
Slavko Vincic (Slovenia)
Matches – 8 (international fixtures, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 19;
Yellow cards per match – 2.4;
Red cards shown – 2;
Fouls per match – 25;
Penalties – 25%.
Chelsea vs Paris Saint-Germain: Match Prediction
Seven goals were scored in the first leg. It is unlikely the sides will manage to repeat that kind of attacking output, but we should still see at least three goals. The English side have no choice but to push forward from the first minute to score an early goal that would bring the intrigue back into this tie. At the same time, they will have to pay less attention to defending, which the visitors will take advantage of.
In their previous seven Champions League games, Chelsea have scored two or more goals on five occasions. In addition, the London club have produced the same scoring output in all seven of their previous European matches against Ligue 1 opposition. The Parisians have scored at least two goals in 9 of their previous 13 matches in this tournament. We would also note that three or more goals have been scored in 6 of Chelsea’s last 7 Champions League matches and in 11 of the French side’s last 13 games in this competition.
Prediction: Over 3 goals
